HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC.(HOG)Stock Analysis
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Rank #1,182 of 2,879 stocksTOP 50%
Rankings refresh quarterly once 80% of peers have filed (~45 days after quarter-end). Next update: ~Aug 14, 2026.
Revenue Growth
Profitability
Balance Sheet
Earnings Quality
Free Cash Flow
Institutional Flow
Revenue Scale
Dilution Risk
HOG Stock Analysis & AI Quality Score
AI stock analysis and institutional research for HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG), a Industrials sector company. 13F Pro's AI-powered ranking engine scores HOG at 55.0/100 on a 32-signal composite quality model, placing it at rank #1,182 of 2,879 stocks — the top half of the AI-ranked universe. HOG scores in the top quartile across balance sheet strength (81.8), institutional flow (77.3), profitability (76.4). Areas of concern include revenue growth (10.7) and earnings quality (21.4), which score below median versus the broader universe. Based on the latest XBRL financial filings (Q1 2026), HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. reports quarterly revenue of $1.2B, net income of $24.8M, free cash flow of $-259.8M. Top institutional holders of HOG by reported 13-F value include BlackRock,, DONALD SMITH & CO.,, DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS, based on the most recent SEC filings. HOG trades on the NYSE exchange and files with the SEC under CIK 793952. 13F Pro's AI research platform runs 10 specialized AI analysts — value, growth, momentum, macro, and activist specialists — that debate HOG daily and publish AI-generated analysis with cited SEC sources. The platform aggregates historical XBRL financial facts, 10-Q and 10-K filings, insider Form 4 transactions, and institutional 13-F holdings for HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. directly from SEC EDGAR. HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC.'s 13F Pro composite quality score has ranged between 45 and 69 since 2021, currently 55.0 — an improving long-term trajectory across 28 quarterly and live scoring snapshots.
Revenue
Q1 2026
$1.2B
Net Income
Q1 2026
$24.8M
Free Cash Flow
Q1 2026
$-259.8M
ROIC
Q1 2026
0.5%
D/E Ratio
Q1 2026
0.70
Revenue & Net Income
Earnings Per Share
Key Financials Over Time
Export Financial Table · Pro+Revenue
-13.8% YoYNet Income
-25.6% YoYOperating Income
-7.2% YoYEPS (Diluted)
-19.2% YoYTotal Assets
-32.3% YoYTotal Debt
-57.4% YoYOp. Cash Flow
-46.5% YoY| Metric | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 | FY 2020 | FY 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.47B -13.8% | $5.19B -9.9% | $5.76B +7.8% | $5.34B +31.6% | $4.05B -29.1% | $5.72B |
| Net Income | $338.7M -25.6% | $455.4M -38.6% | $741.4M +14.1% | $650.0M +49978.9% | $1.3M -99.8% | $531.5M |
| Operating Income | $386.6M -7.2% | $416.6M -54.2% | $909.3M +10.4% | $823.4M +8407.5% | $9.7M -98.6% | $713.5M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.78 -19.2% | $3.44 -30.6% | $4.96 +18.4% | $4.19 +41800.0% | $0.01 -99.7% | $3.19 |
| Total Assets | $8.04B -32.3% | $11.88B +3.4% | $11.49B +4.0% | $11.05B -8.0% | $12.01B +12.6% | $10.67B |
| Total Debt | $2.97B -57.4% | $6.96B +0.7% | $6.91B +0.0% | $6.91B -23.3% | $9.02B +18.3% | $7.62B |
| Operating Cash Flow | $568.9M -46.5% | $1.06B +94.0% | $548.5M -43.8% | $975.7M -17.2% | $1.18B -2.3% | $1.21B |
AI Insight: HOG Financial Trends
Total debt slashed from $7.8B to $2.1B in six quarters, but Q1 2026 revenue fell 12% year-over-year and net income collapsed to $25M.
• Total debt plunged from $7,798M in Q3 2024 to $2,132M in Q1 2026, a ~73% reduction signaling significant deleveraging.
• Revenue declined 12% year-over-year, from $1,329M in Q1 2025 to $1,173M in Q1 2026, continuing a softening demand trend.
• Operating income dropped sharply from $160M in Q1 2025 to $23M in Q1 2026, compressing operating margin dramatically.
• Operating cash flow turned deeply negative at -$228M in Q1 2026, reversing from -$228M versus a positive $142M in Q1 2025.
⚠ Q4 losses deepened year-over-year: net income fell to -$279M in Q4 2025 from -$117M in Q4 2024, a troubling seasonal pattern.
⚠ Equity eroded from $3,438M in Q2 2024 to $3,064M in Q1 2026 despite the large debt paydown — monitor retained earnings pressure.
⚠ Debt reduction pace is a key positive; sustaining it with weakening operating cash flow will be difficult to maintain.
AI Insight: HOG Ratio Trends
Extreme quarterly swings — including a -72.8% operating margin in Q4 2025 and +35.4% in Q3 2025 — obscure a clear deteriorating TTM trend to just 5.8% operating margin.
• TTM operating margin stands at only 5.8%, down sharply from 14.9% in Q2 2024, signaling meaningful profitability erosion over the period.
• D/E ratio improved materially from 2.29 in Q1 2025 to 0.70 in the TTM period, suggesting significant deleveraging.
• Q1 2026 operating margin collapsed to 2.0% and ROIC to 1.8%, the weakest non-negative quarterly readings in the dataset.
• ROE swung from +42.2% in Q3 2025 to -35.6% in Q4 2025, then to just 3.2% in Q1 2026, reflecting extreme earnings volatility.
⚠ Q4 2025 posted -72.8% operating margin and -56.3% NPM — monitor whether Q4 write-downs or restructuring charges recur.
⚠ D/E dropped from 2.29 to 0.70 in four quarters — confirm whether deleveraging reflects asset sales or genuine debt paydown.
⚠ TTM ROIC of 4.8% likely sits below cost of capital; sustained improvement needed to avoid value destruction for shareholders.
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Available Research
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Top Institutional Holders of HOG
BlackRock, Inc.
$214.4M10,605,802 shDONALD SMITH & CO., INC.
$202.5M10,016,874 shDIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
$118.2M5,844,941 shVANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC
$106.8M5,283,574 shVANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
$102.3M5,060,962 shAMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC
$96.2M4,756,434 shSTATE STREET CORP
$76.7M3,795,273 shTWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP
$61.5M3,042,450 shUBS Group AG
$57.7M2,855,214 shGEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
$46.2M2,285,577 sh
| Fund | Value | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc. | $214.4M | 10,605,802 |
| DONALD SMITH & CO., INC. | $202.5M | 10,016,874 |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP | $118.2M | 5,844,941 |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | $106.8M | 5,283,574 |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $102.3M | 5,060,962 |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | $96.2M | 4,756,434 |
| STATE STREET CORP | $76.7M | 3,795,273 |
| TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP | $61.5M | 3,042,450 |
| UBS Group AG | $57.7M | 2,855,214 |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | $46.2M | 2,285,577 |
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Popular Research
Is HOG a good stock to buy?
13F Pro's AI-powered analysis of HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG) draws on SEC EDGAR-sourced fundamentals, institutional 13F holdings, and insider Form 4 transactions in the Industrials sector (listed on NYSE). The 32-signal AI Quality Score, current rank, and full bull/bear verdict for HOG are available on the HOG stock profile dashboard — with the same data, AI insights, ratios, and institutional activity refreshed after every 10-K, 10-Q, 13F, and Form 4 filing.
Which hedge funds own HOG?
Institutional investors are required to disclose their holdings quarterly via SEC Form 13F. 13F Pro aggregates these filings to show which hedge funds, mutual funds, and asset managers are buying or selling HOG. Combined with insider transaction data from Form 4 filings and AI-powered analysis from 10 specialized research agents, 13F Pro provides a comprehensive view of HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC.'s investment landscape.