GEO GROUP INC(GEO)Stock Analysis
AI analysis on 2,800+ stocks →Deep AI analysis on 2,800+ stocks →13F Pro Quality Score
Rank #707 of 2,879 stocksTOP 25%
Rankings refresh quarterly once 80% of peers have filed (~45 days after quarter-end). Next update: ~Aug 14, 2026.
Revenue Growth
Profitability
Balance Sheet
Earnings Quality
Free Cash Flow
Institutional Flow
Revenue Scale
Dilution Risk
GEO Stock Analysis & AI Quality Score
AI stock analysis and institutional research for GEO GROUP INC (GEO), a Industrials sector company. 13F Pro's AI-powered ranking engine scores GEO at 63.0/100 on a 32-signal composite quality model, placing it at rank #707 of 2,879 stocks — the top 25% of the AI-ranked universe. GEO scores in the top quartile across earnings quality (86.7), balance sheet strength (78.0), profitability (77.0). Areas of concern include institutional flow (13.4), which score below median versus the broader universe. Based on the latest XBRL financial filings (Q1 2026), GEO GROUP INC reports quarterly revenue of $705.2M, net income of $38.3M, an operating margin of 12.7%. Top institutional holders of GEO by reported 13-F value include BlackRock,, Pentwater Capital Management, UBS Group AG, based on the most recent SEC filings. GEO trades on the NYSE exchange and files with the SEC under CIK 923796. 13F Pro's AI research platform runs 10 specialized AI analysts — value, growth, momentum, macro, and activist specialists — that debate GEO daily and publish AI-generated analysis with cited SEC sources. The platform aggregates historical XBRL financial facts, 10-Q and 10-K filings, insider Form 4 transactions, and institutional 13-F holdings for GEO GROUP INC directly from SEC EDGAR. GEO GROUP INC's 13F Pro composite quality score has ranged between 8 and 63 since 2021, currently 63.0 — an improving long-term trajectory across 56 quarterly and live scoring snapshots.
Revenue
Q1 2026
$705.2M
Net Income
Q1 2026
$38.3M
Free Cash Flow
Q1 2026
$134.8M
Operating Margin
Q1 2026
12.7%
D/E Ratio
Q1 2026
1.06
Revenue & Net Income
Earnings Per Share
Key Financials Over Time
Export Financial Table · Pro+Revenue
+9.0% YoYNet Income
+137.0% YoYOperating Income
-26.9% YoYEPS (Diluted)
+152.8% YoYTotal Assets
+4.0% YoYTotal Debt
-14.1% YoYOp. Cash Flow
-73.9% YoY| Metric | FY 2025 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2020 | FY 2019 | FY 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.63B +9.0% | $2.41B +1.5% | $2.38B +1.1% | $2.35B -5.2% | $2.48B +6.3% | $2.33B |
| Net Income | $254.4M +137.0% | $107.3M -37.5% | $171.8M +52.0% | $113.0M -32.2% | $166.6M +14.8% | $145.1M |
| Operating Income | $257.5M -26.9% | $352.4M -8.2% | $383.9M +67.4% | $229.4M -24.3% | $303.1M +14.5% | $264.7M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.82 +152.8% | $0.72 -38.5% | $1.17 +24.5% | $0.94 -32.9% | $1.40 +16.7% | $1.20 |
| Total Assets | $3.84B +4.0% | $3.70B -1.7% | $3.76B -15.7% | $4.46B +3.3% | $4.32B +1.4% | $4.26B |
| Total Debt | $1.67B -14.1% | $1.95B -8.7% | $2.14B -28.5% | $2.99B +6.0% | $2.82B -18.2% | $3.44B |
| Operating Cash Flow | $72.6M -73.9% | $277.8M -3.5% | $288.0M -34.8% | $441.7M +30.6% | $338.1M +23.2% | $274.5M |
AI Insight: GEO Financial Trends
Revenue surged 16% year-over-year to $705M in Q1 2026 while debt fell to $1,590M, but operating cash flow volatility and compressed operating margins remain concerns.
• Revenue grew steadily from $603M in Q3 2024 to $708M in Q4 2025, a 17% rise over five quarters.
• Total debt declined from $1,764M in Q2 2024 to $1,590M in Q1 2026, reducing leverage modestly.
• Operating income fell from $82M in Q3 2024 to $41M in Q3 2025 before recovering to $89M in Q1 2026, signaling volatility.
• Operating cash flow swung from $156M in Q1 2026 to -$117M in Q4 2025, showing significant quarter-to-quarter instability.
⚠ Operating CF turned deeply negative at -$117M in Q4 2025 — first negative reading in the observed period.
⚠ Q3 2025 net income of $174M appears anomalous versus the $20–$38M range elsewhere; sustainability is unclear.
⚠ Equity grew from $1,282M to $1,522M over eight quarters, but watch if OCF instability pressures balance sheet quality.
AI Insight: GEO Ratio Trends
GEO's ROIC hit a 5-quarter high of 11.6% in Q1 2026 while leverage fell to 1.06x D/E, marking a clear deleveraging and returns recovery trend.
• ROIC rebounded from a trough of 5.3% in Q3 2025 to 11.6% in Q1 2026, the strongest reading in the dataset.
• D/E ratio declined steadily from 1.38 in Q2 2024 to 1.06 in Q1 2026, reflecting consistent debt reduction.
• Operating margin improved from 6.0% in Q3 2025 to 12.7% in Q1 2026, recovering above Q2 2024 levels.
• Q3 2025 shows anomalous NPM of 25.5% and ROE of 45.7% versus surrounding quarters, suggesting a one-off item distorts that period.
⚠ TTM NPM of 10.0% is inflated by the Q3 2025 one-off; underlying quarterly NPM remains modest at 5.4%.
⚠ Operating margin at 12.7% in Q1 2026 still trails the 13.7% peak in Q3 2024 — full recovery not yet confirmed.
⚠ The nature of the Q3 2025 one-off boosting NPM to 25.5% warrants scrutiny; recurrence or reversal could swing reported earnings sharply.
Get alerted when GEO's score changes
Free account: watchlist tracking, the daily AI brief, and the AI screener.
Available Research
13F Pro tracks comprehensive data for GEO GROUP INC including:
Top Institutional Holders of GEO
BlackRock, Inc.
$346.1M20,589,057 shPentwater Capital Management LP
$160.8M9,565,000 shUBS Group AG
$157.8M9,387,296 shVANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC
$125.3M7,452,438 shVANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
$96.9M5,763,274 shCONTINENTAL GENERAL INSURANCE CO
$96.0M5,709,302 shSTATE STREET CORP
$82.4M4,903,712 shTuriya Advisors Asia Ltd
$76.4M4,546,880 shGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC
$70.1M4,169,349 shRubric Capital Management LP
$62.9M3,743,180 sh
| Fund | Value | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc. | $346.1M | 20,589,057 |
| Pentwater Capital Management LP | $160.8M | 9,565,000 |
| UBS Group AG | $157.8M | 9,387,296 |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | $125.3M | 7,452,438 |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $96.9M | 5,763,274 |
| CONTINENTAL GENERAL INSURANCE CO | $96.0M | 5,709,302 |
| STATE STREET CORP | $82.4M | 4,903,712 |
| Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd | $76.4M | 4,546,880 |
| GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | $70.1M | 4,169,349 |
| Rubric Capital Management LP | $62.9M | 3,743,180 |
More Industrials Companies
View all Industrials →Put GEO on your watchlist
Track score changes the day GEO GROUP INC files with the SEC, follow the hedge funds that own it, screen 2,800+ AI-scored stocks, and get the daily brief — free.
Free tier includes 13F data, economic indicators, and market overview. Pro starts at $6.67/mo (billed annually).
Popular Research
Is GEO a good stock to buy?
13F Pro's AI-powered analysis of GEO GROUP INC (GEO) draws on SEC EDGAR-sourced fundamentals, institutional 13F holdings, and insider Form 4 transactions in the Industrials sector (listed on NYSE). The 32-signal AI Quality Score, current rank, and full bull/bear verdict for GEO are available on the GEO stock profile dashboard — with the same data, AI insights, ratios, and institutional activity refreshed after every 10-K, 10-Q, 13F, and Form 4 filing.
Which hedge funds own GEO?
Institutional investors are required to disclose their holdings quarterly via SEC Form 13F. 13F Pro aggregates these filings to show which hedge funds, mutual funds, and asset managers are buying or selling GEO. Combined with insider transaction data from Form 4 filings and AI-powered analysis from 10 specialized research agents, 13F Pro provides a comprehensive view of GEO GROUP INC's investment landscape.