Blue Bird Corp(BLBD)Stock Analysis
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Rank #483 of 2,879 stocksTOP 25%
Rankings refresh quarterly once 80% of peers have filed (~45 days after quarter-end). Next update: ~Aug 14, 2026.
Revenue Growth
Profitability
Balance Sheet
Earnings Quality
Free Cash Flow
Institutional Flow
Revenue Scale
Dilution Risk
BLBD Stock Analysis & AI Quality Score
AI stock analysis and institutional research for Blue Bird Corp (BLBD), a Industrials sector company. 13F Pro's AI-powered ranking engine scores BLBD at 67.1/100 on a 32-signal composite quality model, placing it at rank #483 of 2,879 stocks — the top 25% of the AI-ranked universe. BLBD scores in the top quartile across balance sheet strength (96.4), earnings quality (91.5). Areas of concern include institutional flow (18.7), which score below median versus the broader universe. Based on the latest XBRL financial filings (Q2 2026), Blue Bird Corp reports quarterly revenue of $352.6M, net income of $29.3M, an operating margin of 11.1%. Top institutional holders of BLBD by reported 13-F value include BlackRock,, FMR, AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES, based on the most recent SEC filings. BLBD trades on the Nasdaq exchange and files with the SEC under CIK 1589526. 13F Pro's AI research platform runs 10 specialized AI analysts — value, growth, momentum, macro, and activist specialists — that debate BLBD daily and publish AI-generated analysis with cited SEC sources. The platform aggregates historical XBRL financial facts, 10-Q and 10-K filings, insider Form 4 transactions, and institutional 13-F holdings for Blue Bird Corp directly from SEC EDGAR. Blue Bird Corp's 13F Pro composite quality score has ranged between 8 and 76 since 2021, currently 67.1 — an improving long-term trajectory across 56 quarterly and live scoring snapshots.
What's Driving BLBD's Business? Latest 10-Q Breakdown
AI-extracted from Blue Bird Corp's 10-Q filed 2026-05-06 — Q2 FY2026 (six months ended March 28, 2026). Every figure is machine-verified against the filing text on SEC EDGAR.
Blue Bird posted $685.7M revenue (+1.9% YoY) and $60.1M net income (+9.6% YoY) for H1 FY2026, with Adjusted EBITDA margin expanding 60bps to 14.7%, driven by pricing actions offsetting tariff and inflation pressures.
Biggest Revenue Drivers
Total revenue: $685.7M+1.9% YoY
5.3% average price increase partially offset 3.2% unit decline; pricing actions mitigated tariff and inflationary cost pressures.
Largest Expense Items
As % of sales improved from 80.5% to 79.3%; pricing exceeded tariff and inflationary cost increases.
Increase in R&D and labor costs partially offset by lower share-based compensation versus prior year.
Decrease driven by lower stated term loan rate (5.5% vs 6.2%) and lower outstanding borrowings.
Watch Items from the Filing
- Backlog of 3,560 units as of March 28, 2026 (up from 3,070 at September 27, 2025) includes over 900 electric units; uncertainty in bus pricing from tariffs temporarily impacted orders in late FY2025.
- Micro Bird acquisition closed April 1, 2026 for $201.8M ($63M cash + $138.8M stock; $129.6M Micro Bird debt repaid). Company incurred $2.7M pretax transaction costs in Q2.
- Pension plan termination underway; $13M lump-sum settlements paid April 2026. Entire $28.1M accumulated other comprehensive loss will be recognized as Q3 loss upon plan completion.
- Supply chain constraints and tariff pressures continue; pricing actions offset so far but company explicitly states risks could materially impact future results if unable to pass costs or procure inventory.
AI-extracted and verified against SEC EDGAR filing text. Not investment advice.
Revenue
Q2 2026
$352.6M
Net Income
Q2 2026
$29.3M
Free Cash Flow
Q2 2026
$39.9M
Operating Margin
Q2 2026
11.1%
D/E Ratio
Q2 2026
0.30
Revenue & Net Income
Earnings Per Share
Key Financials Over Time
Export Financial Table · Pro+Revenue
+30.7% YoYNet Income
+436.4% YoYOperating Income
+223.6% YoYEPS (Diluted)
+424.3% YoYTotal Assets
+49.7% YoYTotal Debt
-30.7% YoYOp. Cash Flow
+46.9% YoY| Metric | FY 2025 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 | FY 2020 | FY 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.48B +30.7% | $1.13B +41.5% | $800.6M +17.1% | $684.0M -22.2% | $879.2M -13.7% | $1.02B |
| Net Income | $127.7M +436.4% | $23.8M +152.0% | $-45.8M -15733.6% | $-289.0K -102.4% | $12.2M -49.9% | $24.3M |
| Operating Income | $167.2M +223.6% | $51.7M +226.9% | $-40.7M -724.0% | $6.5M -70.3% | $22.0M -49.8% | $43.8M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.88 +424.3% | $0.74 +150.0% | $-1.48 -14700.0% | $-0.01 -102.2% | $0.45 -50.0% | $0.90 |
| Total Assets | $625.3M +49.7% | $417.8M +14.1% | $366.1M +2.8% | $356.0M +12.2% | $317.4M -13.1% | $365.4M |
| Total Debt | $90.3M -30.7% | $130.3M -13.2% | $150.2M -8.7% | $164.4M -5.6% | $174.1M -4.9% | $183.1M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $176.2M +46.9% | $119.9M +590.8% | $-24.4M +54.9% | $-54.2M -1668.1% | $3.5M -93.8% | $55.7M |
AI Insight: BLBD Financial Trends
Blue Bird posted strong revenue growth and margin expansion through 2025, with operating income up 22.5% year-over-year in Q1 2026 despite seasonal revenue dips.
• Revenue grew from $333M (Q2 2024) to $353M (Q1 2026), +6% over 2 years; Q2–Q3 2025 peak at $398M–$409M.
• Operating income expanded from $40M (Q2 2024) to $39M (Q1 2026); Q2–Q3 2025 reached $50M (+25% vs Q2 2024).
• Operating cash flow strengthened: $1M (Q2 2024) to $48M (Q1 2026); Q3 2025 hit $65M.
• Total debt fell from $96M to $88M; equity rose from $137M to $298M, improving leverage and balance sheet strength.
⚠ Quarterly revenue volatility: dips to $314M–$333M in Q4 periods suggest seasonal weakness; Q1 2026 at $353M below Q1 2025 peak of $359M.
⚠ Net income declined from $36M (Q2–Q3 2025) to $29M (Q1 2026), a 19% drop quarter-over-quarter despite stable op income.
AI Insight: BLBD Ratio Trends
BLBD's profitability and return metrics have deteriorated steadily since Q2 2025, with ROE falling 26.4pp to 39.3% and ROIC contracting 23.3pp to 40.6% in Q1 2026.
• Operating margin compressed from 12.6% in Q2 2025 to 11.1% in Q1 2026, reversing earlier recovery from 9.4% lows.
• Leverage improved meaningfully: D/E ratio fell from 0.70 in Q2 2024 to 0.30 in Q1 2026, halving debt burden.
• Net profit margin remained stable ~8–9% range across trailing twelve months, but ROA declined to 17.0% from 25.3% peak.
⚠ ROIC tumbled 23.3pp from Q2 2025 peak (63.9%) to Q1 2026 (40.6%)—sharpest deterioration in capital efficiency in dataset.
⚠ Four consecutive quarters of ROE contraction (65.7% → 39.3%) suggests eroding profitability or asset base pressure.
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Top Institutional Holders of BLBD
BlackRock, Inc.
$147.1M2,590,073 shFMR LLC
$144.3M2,541,383 shAMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC
$100.0M1,760,651 shWESTWOOD HOLDINGS GROUP INC
$94.0M1,654,770 shVANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
$79.0M1,390,607 shJANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC
$62.7M1,102,335 shWELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP
$57.8M1,018,167 shGEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
$47.0M827,122 shSTATE STREET CORP
$42.7M752,313 shDIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
$39.1M688,931 sh
| Fund | Value | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc. | $147.1M | 2,590,073 |
| FMR LLC | $144.3M | 2,541,383 |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | $100.0M | 1,760,651 |
| WESTWOOD HOLDINGS GROUP INC | $94.0M | 1,654,770 |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $79.0M | 1,390,607 |
| JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC | $62.7M | 1,102,335 |
| WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP | $57.8M | 1,018,167 |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | $47.0M | 827,122 |
| STATE STREET CORP | $42.7M | 752,313 |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP | $39.1M | 688,931 |
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Popular Research
Is BLBD a good stock to buy?
13F Pro's AI-powered analysis of Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) draws on SEC EDGAR-sourced fundamentals, institutional 13F holdings, and insider Form 4 transactions in the Industrials sector (listed on Nasdaq). The 32-signal AI Quality Score, current rank, and full bull/bear verdict for BLBD are available on the BLBD stock profile dashboard — with the same data, AI insights, ratios, and institutional activity refreshed after every 10-K, 10-Q, 13F, and Form 4 filing.
Which hedge funds own BLBD?
Institutional investors are required to disclose their holdings quarterly via SEC Form 13F. 13F Pro aggregates these filings to show which hedge funds, mutual funds, and asset managers are buying or selling BLBD. Combined with insider transaction data from Form 4 filings and AI-powered analysis from 10 specialized research agents, 13F Pro provides a comprehensive view of Blue Bird Corp's investment landscape.