ST JOE Co(JOE)Stock Analysis
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Rank #269 of 2,879 stocksTOP 10%
Rankings refresh quarterly once 80% of peers have filed (~45 days after quarter-end). Next update: ~Aug 14, 2026.
Revenue Growth
Profitability
Balance Sheet
Earnings Quality
Free Cash Flow
Institutional Flow
Revenue Scale
Dilution Risk
JOE Stock Analysis & AI Quality Score
AI stock analysis and institutional research for ST JOE Co (JOE), a Real Estate sector company. 13F Pro's AI-powered ranking engine scores JOE at 71.2/100 on a 32-signal composite quality model, placing it at rank #269 of 2,879 stocks — the top 10% of the AI-ranked universe. JOE scores in the top quartile across free cash flow (89.5), profitability (85.5), balance sheet strength (77.0). Areas of concern include revenue scale (36.3), which score below median versus the broader universe. Based on the latest XBRL financial filings (Q1 2026), ST JOE Co reports quarterly revenue of $99.0M, net income of $13.9M, free cash flow of $40.2M. Top institutional holders of JOE by reported 13-F value include FAIRHOLME CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, BlackRock,, VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT, based on the most recent SEC filings. JOE trades on the NYSE exchange and files with the SEC under CIK 745308. 13F Pro's AI research platform runs 10 specialized AI analysts — value, growth, momentum, macro, and activist specialists — that debate JOE daily and publish AI-generated analysis with cited SEC sources. The platform aggregates historical XBRL financial facts, 10-Q and 10-K filings, insider Form 4 transactions, and institutional 13-F holdings for ST JOE Co directly from SEC EDGAR. ST JOE Co's 13F Pro composite quality score has ranged between 8 and 77 since 2021, currently 71.2 — an improving long-term trajectory across 56 quarterly and live scoring snapshots.
What's Driving JOE's Business? Latest 10-Q Breakdown
AI-extracted from ST JOE Co's 10-Q filed 2026-04-29 — Q1 2026 (three months ended March 31, 2026). Every figure is machine-verified against the filing text on SEC EDGAR.
St. Joe delivered Q1 2026 revenue of $99.1M (+5.2% YoY), driven by record first-quarter hospitality revenue of $44.7M (+12.9% YoY), though equity income from unconsolidated JVs declined 65% due to lower home closings at Latitude Margaritaville.
Biggest Revenue Drivers
Total revenue: $99.1M+5.2% YoY
Membership increases and ancillary spend; higher hotel ADR, occupancy and guest incidental spend; 3,647 Watersound Club members vs. 3,498 prior year
Residential homesites and homes sales of $26.2M; commercial/forestry/hospitality real estate sales of $6.4M; timber sales of $0.9M
Watercrest senior living property sale in September 2025 and Watersound Villas townhome sales offset by additional commercial leases
Largest Expense Items
Increased costs supporting 12.9% hospitality revenue growth; gross margin improved to 24.4% from 18.2%
Non-cash expense; decreased primarily due to assets sold since prior period
Margins: Consolidated gross margin declined to 45.6% from 50.9% YoY, driven by lower-margin real estate sales mix (168 homesites vs. 249 prior year). However, hospitality and leasing segments improved margins to 24.4% and 61.2% respectively, reflecting operational stabilization and better cost management.
Watch Items from the Filing
- Latitude Margaritaville Watersound JV home closings fell 57% to 83 units in Q1 2026 vs. 192 in Q1 2025, causing equity income contribution to drop $7.6M (65% YoY decline). JV has completed 2,273 of ~3,700 planned homes.
- Pier Park Resort Hotel JV loan of $49.5M matures in April 2027 with interest rate swap maturing concurrently at 3.2% fixed rate; refinancing will be required within 12 months.
- Deferred tax liability of $45.6M due in 2029 upon maturity of timber sale installment note; $200M time deposit held by SPE will fund $180M Senior Notes repayment, leaving $20M available for tax liability.
- 3,204 residential homesites under contract as of March 31, 2026 (up from 952 at March 31, 2025) expected to generate ~$119.9M revenue excluding Pigeon Creek and SouthWood; higher pipeline provides revenue visibility.
AI-extracted and verified against SEC EDGAR filing text. Not investment advice.
Revenue
Q1 2026
$99.0M
Net Income
Q1 2026
$13.9M
Free Cash Flow
Q1 2026
$40.2M
D/E Ratio
Q1 2026
0.50
Revenue & Net Income
Earnings Per Share
Key Financials Over Time
Export Financial Table · Pro+Revenue
+27.4% YoYNet Income
+55.9% YoYOperating Income
+53.0% YoYEPS (Diluted)
+56.7% YoYTotal Assets
-1.3% YoYTotal Debt
-10.6% YoYOp. Cash Flow
+76.6% YoY| Metric | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 | FY 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $513.2M +27.4% | $402.7M +3.5% | $389.3M +54.3% | $252.3M -5.5% | $267.0M +66.3% | $160.6M |
| Net Income | $115.6M +55.9% | $74.2M -4.5% | $77.7M +9.6% | $70.9M -4.9% | $74.6M +64.9% | $45.2M |
| Operating Income | $146.2M +53.0% | $95.6M +5.3% | $90.7M +47.6% | $61.5M -34.9% | $94.5M +100.6% | $47.1M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.99 +56.7% | $1.27 -4.5% | $1.33 +9.9% | $1.21 -4.7% | $1.27 +64.9% | $0.77 |
| Total Assets | $1.52B -1.3% | $1.54B +1.0% | $1.52B +6.5% | $1.43B +18.4% | $1.21B +16.5% | $1.04B |
| Total Debt | $391.2M -10.6% | $437.8M -3.5% | $453.6M +17.6% | $385.9M +73.0% | $223.0M +40.3% | $158.9M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $190.7M +76.6% | $108.0M +4.0% | $103.8M +115.4% | $48.2M -56.9% | $111.8M +199.5% | $37.3M |
AI Insight: JOE Financial Trends
ST JOE shows strong seasonal revenue patterns with Q3 2025 hitting $161M peak, but Q1 2026 revenue dropped back to $99M.
• Revenue peaked at $161M in Q3 2025, up 63% from $99M in Q3 2024.
• Total debt declined from $447M in Q2 2024 to $380M in Q1 2026.
• Operating cash flow surged to $86M in Q3 2025 from $28M in Q3 2024.
⚠ Operating income fell to $18M in Q1 2026 from $53M in Q3 2025 peak.
⚠ Net income dropped to $14M in Q1 2026, lowest level since Q3 2024.
AI Insight: JOE Ratio Trends
Operating margin compressed to 18.4% in Q1 2026 from 32.9% peak in Q3 2025, with ROIC falling to 6.3% from 18.3% high.
• Operating margin declined from 32.9% in Q3 2025 to 18.4% in Q1 2026, erasing prior gains.
• ROIC contracted sharply from 18.3% in Q3 2025 to 6.3% in Q1 2026.
• Debt-to-equity improved from 0.63 in Q2 2024 to 0.50 in Q1 2026.
⚠ Profitability metrics show extreme quarterly volatility, with margins swinging from 17.9% to 32.9% and back to 18.4%.
⚠ ROE dropped to 7.3% in Q1 2026 from 20.3% peak in Q3 2025.
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Top Institutional Holders of JOE
FAIRHOLME CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
$1.2B19,210,167 shBlackRock, Inc.
$375.7M5,982,465 shVANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC
$241.1M3,839,565 shVANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
$113.1M1,800,615 shSTATE STREET CORP
$93.3M1,485,510 shDIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
$82.8M1,318,938 shSelect Equity Group, L.P.
$80.1M1,274,988 shGEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
$63.9M1,017,364 shPraetorian PR LLC
$42.4M675,000 shFMR LLC
$40.9M651,699 sh
| Fund | Value | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| FAIRHOLME CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $1.2B | 19,210,167 |
| BlackRock, Inc. | $375.7M | 5,982,465 |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | $241.1M | 3,839,565 |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $113.1M | 1,800,615 |
| STATE STREET CORP | $93.3M | 1,485,510 |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP | $82.8M | 1,318,938 |
| Select Equity Group, L.P. | $80.1M | 1,274,988 |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | $63.9M | 1,017,364 |
| Praetorian PR LLC | $42.4M | 675,000 |
| FMR LLC | $40.9M | 651,699 |
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Popular Research
Is JOE a good stock to buy?
13F Pro's AI-powered analysis of ST JOE Co (JOE) draws on SEC EDGAR-sourced fundamentals, institutional 13F holdings, and insider Form 4 transactions in the Real Estate sector (listed on NYSE). The 32-signal AI Quality Score, current rank, and full bull/bear verdict for JOE are available on the JOE stock profile dashboard — with the same data, AI insights, ratios, and institutional activity refreshed after every 10-K, 10-Q, 13F, and Form 4 filing.
Which hedge funds own JOE?
Institutional investors are required to disclose their holdings quarterly via SEC Form 13F. 13F Pro aggregates these filings to show which hedge funds, mutual funds, and asset managers are buying or selling JOE. Combined with insider transaction data from Form 4 filings and AI-powered analysis from 10 specialized research agents, 13F Pro provides a comprehensive view of ST JOE Co's investment landscape.