CF Industries Holdings, Inc.(CF)Stock Analysis
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Rank #95 of 2,879 stocksTOP 5%
Rankings refresh quarterly once 80% of peers have filed (~45 days after quarter-end). Next update: ~Aug 14, 2026.
Revenue Growth
Profitability
Balance Sheet
Earnings Quality
Free Cash Flow
Institutional Flow
Revenue Scale
Dilution Risk
CF Stock Analysis & AI Quality Score
AI stock analysis and institutional research for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF), a Materials sector company. 13F Pro's AI-powered ranking engine scores CF at 76.8/100 on a 32-signal composite quality model, placing it at rank #95 of 2,879 stocks — the top 5% of the AI-ranked universe. CF scores in the top quartile across balance sheet strength (92.3), profitability (90.8), revenue scale (83.1). Based on the latest XBRL financial filings (Q1 2026), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. reports quarterly revenue of $2.0B, net income of $676.0M, an operating margin of 43.5%. Top institutional holders of CF by reported 13-F value include BlackRock,, VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, STATE STREET, based on the most recent SEC filings. CF trades on the NYSE exchange and files with the SEC under CIK 1324404. 13F Pro's AI research platform runs 10 specialized AI analysts — value, growth, momentum, macro, and activist specialists — that debate CF daily and publish AI-generated analysis with cited SEC sources. The platform aggregates historical XBRL financial facts, 10-Q and 10-K filings, insider Form 4 transactions, and institutional 13-F holdings for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. directly from SEC EDGAR. CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s 13F Pro composite quality score has ranged between 8 and 86 since 2021, currently 76.8 — an improving long-term trajectory across 56 quarterly and live scoring snapshots.
What's Driving CF's Business? Latest 10-Q Breakdown
✓ 39/39 datapoints verifiedAI-extracted from CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s 10-Q filed 2026-05-07 — Q1 2026 (quarter ended March 31, 2026). Every figure is machine-verified against the filing text on SEC EDGAR.
CF Industries swung to $615M net earnings on 28% higher average selling prices amid geopolitical nitrogen supply constraints, though Yazoo City incident idled AN production.
Biggest Revenue Drivers
Total revenue: $1,986M+19% YoY
17% higher average selling prices and 15% higher sales volume due to tight global nitrogen supply and higher beginning inventory.
39% higher average selling prices driven by tighter global supply-demand balance impacted by geopolitical events, partially offset by 11% lower volume.
25% higher average selling prices due to global supply constraints from geopolitical conflict, offset by 4% lower sales volume.
60% lower sales volume from idled Yazoo City facility, partially offset by 45% higher average selling prices.
8% lower sales volume from reduced DEF production at Yazoo City, slightly offset by 4% higher average selling prices.
Largest Expense Items
Higher maintenance costs, unabsorbed fixed costs from plant downtime at Yazoo City, and 24% higher natural gas costs per MMBtu.
Higher incentive compensation due to strong operating performance and corporate initiative costs.
Higher principal amounts from November 2025 senior notes issuance, partially offset by higher capitalized interest.
Margins: Gross margin expanded 30% to $746M, representing 37.6% of sales versus 34.4% prior year. The expansion was driven by 28% higher average selling prices (+$401M), partially offset by 24% higher natural gas costs (-$76M) and lower sales volume (-$34M), plus maintenance and Yazoo City downtime impacts.
Watch Items from the Filing
- Yazoo City incident idled all AN production in November 2025; management expects late Q4 2026 restart at earliest, materially reducing AN segment earnings and overall sales volume near-term.
- Blue Point joint venture capex estimated at $3.7B total; company's 40% share ~$1.5B plus $550M for Common Facilities; first production 2029. Geopolitical tariff uncertainty and supply chain delays risk timeline and cost overruns.
- Multiple antitrust complaints filed March 2026 alleging fertilizer price-fixing conspiracy; class periods begin 2020-2021; JPML hearing scheduled May 28, 2026. Company disputes allegations but cannot estimate exposure.
- Natural gas costs surged 24% YoY to $4.57/MMBtu; January 2026 winter storm drove Henry Hub to all-time highs; natural gas represents 39% of Q1 production costs, creating significant margin volatility.
AI-extracted and verified against SEC EDGAR filing text. Not investment advice.
Revenue
Q1 2026
$2.0B
Net Income
Q1 2026
$676.0M
Free Cash Flow
Q1 2026
$273.0M
Operating Margin
Q1 2026
43.5%
D/E Ratio
Q1 2026
0.60
Revenue & Net Income
Earnings Per Share
Key Financials Over Time
Export Financial Table · Pro+Revenue
+19.3% YoYOperating Income
+31.7% YoYEPS (Diluted)
+33.1% YoYTotal Assets
+4.6% YoYTotal Debt
+8.2% YoYOp. Cash Flow
+21.2% YoY| Metric | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 | FY 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.08B +19.3% | $5.94B -10.5% | $6.63B -40.7% | $11.19B +71.1% | $6.54B +58.5% | $4.12B |
| Operating Income | $2.30B +31.7% | $1.75B -21.7% | $2.23B -58.7% | $5.40B +212.1% | $1.73B +177.5% | $623.0M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $8.97 +33.1% | $6.74 -14.4% | $7.87 -52.0% | $16.38 +286.3% | $4.24 +188.4% | $1.47 |
| Total Assets | $14.09B +4.6% | $13.47B -6.3% | $14.38B +8.0% | $13.31B +7.6% | $12.38B +2.9% | $12.02B |
| Total Debt | $3.21B +8.2% | $2.97B +0.1% | $2.97B +0.1% | $2.96B -14.4% | $3.46B -17.7% | $4.21B |
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.75B +21.2% | $2.27B -17.6% | $2.76B -28.5% | $3.85B +34.2% | $2.87B +133.4% | $1.23B |
AI Insight: CF Financial Trends
Operating income surged 89% from Q2 2024 to Q1 2026 despite flat debt, but leverage crept higher in latest quarter.
• Operating income climbed from $638M in Q2 2024 to $863M in Q1 2026, a 35% gain over two years.
• Revenue grew 26% from Q2 2024 ($1,572M) to Q1 2026 ($1,986M), with Q2 2025 peak at $1,890M.
• Total debt rose from $2,970M (Q2 2024) to $3,216M (Q1 2026), a 8% increase despite stable equity.
• Operating cash flow averaged $630M over eight quarters; Q3 2025 spike to $1,064M not sustained in Q4–Q1.
⚠ Debt-to-equity ratio rose to 0.60x in Q1 2026 from 0.54x in Q2 2024—first meaningful leverage deterioration.
⚠ Operating cash flow declined 53% from Q3 2025 ($1,064M) to Q4 2025 ($539M), suggesting seasonality or working-capital headwinds.
AI Insight: CF Ratio Trends
Operating margin surged to 43.5% in Q1 2026, driven by ROIC expansion to 40.3%—highest in the trailing dataset.
• Operating margin jumped 10.5pp quarter-over-quarter to 43.5% in Q1 2026, rebounding from 33.0% in Q4 2025.
• ROIC reached 40.3% in Q1 2026, up 9.7pp from Q4 2025 and highest since Q2 2024's 30.3%.
• Leverage stable at 0.60 D/E in Q1 2026, matching TTM and Q2 2024 levels despite margin expansion.
⚠ Q1 2026 metrics significantly outpace TTM averages (43.5% OpMargin vs. 36.6% TTM; 40.3% ROIC vs. 31.6% TTM)—verify sustainability.
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Available Research
13F Pro tracks comprehensive data for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. including:
Top Institutional Holders of CF
BlackRock, Inc.
$1.6B12,191,733 shVANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
$1.3B10,051,527 shSTATE STREET CORP
$1.0B7,887,744 shVANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC
$1.0B7,739,669 shGEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
$715.7M5,178,962 shDIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
$579.1M4,458,907 shFMR LLC
$565.7M4,356,981 shAMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC
$406.2M3,128,234 shNORTHERN TRUST CORP
$403.4M3,106,699 shInvesco Ltd.
$388.4M2,991,591 sh
| Fund | Value | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc. | $1.6B | 12,191,733 |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $1.3B | 10,051,527 |
| STATE STREET CORP | $1.0B | 7,887,744 |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | $1.0B | 7,739,669 |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | $715.7M | 5,178,962 |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP | $579.1M | 4,458,907 |
| FMR LLC | $565.7M | 4,356,981 |
| AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC | $406.2M | 3,128,234 |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORP | $403.4M | 3,106,699 |
| Invesco Ltd. | $388.4M | 2,991,591 |
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Popular Research
Is CF a good stock to buy?
13F Pro's AI-powered analysis of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) draws on SEC EDGAR-sourced fundamentals, institutional 13F holdings, and insider Form 4 transactions in the Materials sector (listed on NYSE). The 32-signal AI Quality Score, current rank, and full bull/bear verdict for CF are available on the CF stock profile dashboard — with the same data, AI insights, ratios, and institutional activity refreshed after every 10-K, 10-Q, 13F, and Form 4 filing.
Which hedge funds own CF?
Institutional investors are required to disclose their holdings quarterly via SEC Form 13F. 13F Pro aggregates these filings to show which hedge funds, mutual funds, and asset managers are buying or selling CF. Combined with insider transaction data from Form 4 filings and AI-powered analysis from 10 specialized research agents, 13F Pro provides a comprehensive view of CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s investment landscape.