PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA(PKG)Stock Analysis
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Rank #337 of 2,879 stocksTOP 25%
Rankings refresh quarterly once 80% of peers have filed (~45 days after quarter-end). Next update: ~Aug 14, 2026.
Revenue Growth
Profitability
Balance Sheet
Earnings Quality
Free Cash Flow
Institutional Flow
Revenue Scale
Dilution Risk
PKG Stock Analysis & AI Quality Score
AI stock analysis and institutional research for PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA (PKG), a Materials sector company. 13F Pro's AI-powered ranking engine scores PKG at 70.0/100 on a 32-signal composite quality model, placing it at rank #337 of 2,879 stocks — the top 25% of the AI-ranked universe. PKG scores in the top quartile across institutional flow (100.0), revenue scale (85.6), balance sheet strength (81.4). Based on the latest XBRL financial filings (Q1 2026), PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA reports quarterly revenue of $2.4B, net income of $170.9M, an operating margin of 10.6%. Top institutional holders of PKG by reported 13-F value include BlackRock,, VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT, based on the most recent SEC filings. PKG trades on the NYSE exchange and files with the SEC under CIK 75677. 13F Pro's AI research platform runs 10 specialized AI analysts — value, growth, momentum, macro, and activist specialists — that debate PKG daily and publish AI-generated analysis with cited SEC sources. The platform aggregates historical XBRL financial facts, 10-Q and 10-K filings, insider Form 4 transactions, and institutional 13-F holdings for PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA directly from SEC EDGAR. PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA's 13F Pro composite quality score has ranged between 8 and 70 since 2021, currently 70.0 — an improving long-term trajectory across 56 quarterly and live scoring snapshots.
What's Driving PKG's Business? Latest 10-Q Breakdown
AI-extracted from PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA's 10-Q filed 2026-05-08 — Q1 2026 (quarter ended March 31, 2026). Every figure is machine-verified against the filing text on SEC EDGAR.
Q1 net sales reached $2.37B (+10.6% YoY), but net income fell to $171M ($1.91/diluted share) from $204M ($2.26/share) due to $53M Wallula mill restructuring charges and higher interest expense from Greif acquisition financing.
Biggest Revenue Drivers
Total revenue: $2,367.8M+10.6% YoY
Higher volume from acquired Greif business ($224M), higher containerboard and corrugated products prices and mix ($18M), offset by lower legacy volume ($24M).
Higher volumes ($4M) and higher prices and mix ($2M).
Largest Expense Items
Higher operating costs, higher freight expense, offset by higher volumes, higher prices, lower fiber costs, and lower maintenance outage expense. Included $51M special items for Wallula mill restructuring.
Higher depreciation from acquired business, higher employee-related expenses, information technology costs, and insurance.
Watch Items from the Filing
- Wallula, Washington mill No. 2 paper machine and kraft pulping facilities shut down in Q1 2026, resulting in $181.3M total pre-tax restructuring charges ($53.3M recorded in Q1); impact on future earnings and capacity unclear.
- Greif Acquisition contributed $224M incremental revenue but generated net loss of $0.06/share in Q1 due to $34M depreciation/amortization and $19M additional interest; acquisition integration costs ongoing.
- Antitrust lawsuit filed July 29, 2025 (Artuso Pastry Foods v. PCA et al) alleges price-fixing conspiracy on containerboard Nov 2020-present; company denies allegations but litigation risk remains.
- Legacy PCA corrugated shipments grew only 2.8% per day (1.2% total) despite industry pricing increases; company expects volume growth in Q2 but projects Q2 earnings below Q1 excluding special items.
AI-extracted and verified against SEC EDGAR filing text. Not investment advice.
Revenue
Q1 2026
$2.4B
Net Income
Q1 2026
$170.9M
Free Cash Flow
Q1 2026
$164.6M
Operating Margin
Q1 2026
10.6%
D/E Ratio
Q1 2026
0.86
Revenue & Net Income
Earnings Per Share
Key Financials Over Time
Export Financial Table · Pro+Revenue
+7.2% YoYNet Income
-3.9% YoYOperating Income
+0.5% YoYEPS (Diluted)
-3.9% YoYTotal Assets
+21.4% YoYTotal Debt
+60.2% YoYOp. Cash Flow
+30.8% YoY| Metric | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2020 | FY 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.99B +7.2% | $8.38B +7.4% | $7.80B -8.0% | $8.48B +27.3% | $6.66B -5.1% | $7.01B |
| Net Income | $774.1M -3.9% | $805.1M +5.2% | $765.2M -25.7% | $1.03B +123.4% | $461.0M -37.5% | $738.0M |
| Operating Income | $1.11B +0.5% | $1.10B +2.4% | $1.08B -24.3% | $1.42B +96.3% | $723.9M -32.2% | $1.07B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $8.58 -3.9% | $8.93 +5.3% | $8.48 -23.1% | $11.03 +127.9% | $4.84 -37.9% | $7.80 |
| Total Assets | $10.73B +21.4% | $8.83B +1.8% | $8.68B +8.5% | $8.00B +7.7% | $7.43B +13.1% | $6.57B |
| Total Debt | $3.99B +60.2% | $2.49B -24.3% | $3.29B +32.1% | $2.49B -0.1% | $2.49B -0.1% | $2.50B |
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.56B +30.8% | $1.19B -9.4% | $1.32B -12.0% | $1.50B +44.8% | $1.03B -12.5% | $1.18B |
AI Insight: PKG Financial Trends
Revenue growth masks sharp profitability collapse in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, signaling margin pressure despite debt stabilization.
• Revenue grew 14.1% from Q2 2024 ($2,075M) to Q1 2026 ($2,368M), driven by volume gains in containerboard.
• Operating margin contracted sharply: 13.3% in Q2 2024 to 10.6% in Q1 2026, with Q4 2025 at 7.1%—lowest in series.
• Net income fell 14.1% year-over-year from Q1 2025 ($204M) to Q1 2026 ($171M), despite stable operating cash flow.
⚠ Total debt spiked 60.8% to $3,992M in Q3 2025, likely from acquisition; leverage stabilized but remains elevated.
⚠ Operating income fell 70.3% from Q2 2025 ($334M) to Q4 2025 ($168M)—sharpest quarterly decline in dataset.
AI Insight: PKG Ratio Trends
PKG's profitability and returns collapsed in Q4 2025 and remain depressed in Q1 2026, erasing two years of operational gains.
• Operating margin plummeted from 15.4% in Q2 2025 to 7.1% in Q4 2025, recovering only slightly to 10.6% in Q1 2026.
• ROIC fell from 18.8% in Q2 2025 to 7.8% in Q4 2025; Q1 2026 TTM ROIC of 12.6% sits 3.2pp below Q1 2025.
• Leverage spiked from 0.53x D/E in Q2 2025 to 0.86–0.87x in recent quarters, approaching historical peaks.
⚠ Net profit margin halved from 11.1% (Q2 2025) to 4.3% (Q4 2025), signaling either cost inflation or demand weakness.
⚠ ROE deteriorated from 20.8% in Q2 2025 to 8.9% in Q4 2025; Q1 2026 TTM recovery to 16.2% still trails pre-collapse levels.
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Top Institutional Holders of PKG
BlackRock, Inc.
$1.6B7,706,574 shVANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
$1.2B5,802,254 shVANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC
$929.6M4,380,570 shSTATE STREET CORP
$906.0M4,244,444 shFIL Ltd
$606.5M2,857,923 shGEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
$525.6M2,485,736 shROYAL BANK OF CANADA
$493.0M2,323,010 shBank of New York Mellon Corp
$474.4M2,235,584 shAMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC
$438.6M2,066,537 shVICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC
$429.6M2,024,118 sh
| Fund | Value | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc. | $1.6B | 7,706,574 |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $1.2B | 5,802,254 |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | $929.6M | 4,380,570 |
| STATE STREET CORP | $906.0M | 4,244,444 |
| FIL Ltd | $606.5M | 2,857,923 |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | $525.6M | 2,485,736 |
| ROYAL BANK OF CANADA | $493.0M | 2,323,010 |
| Bank of New York Mellon Corp | $474.4M | 2,235,584 |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | $438.6M | 2,066,537 |
| VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC | $429.6M | 2,024,118 |
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Popular Research
Is PKG a good stock to buy?
13F Pro's AI-powered analysis of PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA (PKG) draws on SEC EDGAR-sourced fundamentals, institutional 13F holdings, and insider Form 4 transactions in the Materials sector (listed on NYSE). The 32-signal AI Quality Score, current rank, and full bull/bear verdict for PKG are available on the PKG stock profile dashboard — with the same data, AI insights, ratios, and institutional activity refreshed after every 10-K, 10-Q, 13F, and Form 4 filing.
Which hedge funds own PKG?
Institutional investors are required to disclose their holdings quarterly via SEC Form 13F. 13F Pro aggregates these filings to show which hedge funds, mutual funds, and asset managers are buying or selling PKG. Combined with insider transaction data from Form 4 filings and AI-powered analysis from 10 specialized research agents, 13F Pro provides a comprehensive view of PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA's investment landscape.