NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP(NSC)Stock Analysis
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Rank #289 of 2,879 stocksTOP 25%
Rankings refresh quarterly once 80% of peers have filed (~45 days after quarter-end). Next update: ~Aug 14, 2026.
Revenue Growth
Profitability
Balance Sheet
Earnings Quality
Free Cash Flow
Institutional Flow
Revenue Scale
Dilution Risk
NSC Stock Analysis & AI Quality Score
AI stock analysis and institutional research for NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC), a Industrials sector company. 13F Pro's AI-powered ranking engine scores NSC at 70.8/100 on a 32-signal composite quality model, placing it at rank #289 of 2,879 stocks — the top 25% of the AI-ranked universe. NSC scores in the top quartile across revenue scale (88.3), profitability (87.8), earnings quality (82.0). Areas of concern include revenue growth (34.4), which score below median versus the broader universe. Based on the latest XBRL financial filings (Q1 2026), NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP reports quarterly revenue of $3.0B, net income of $547.0M, an operating margin of 29.3%. Top institutional holders of NSC by reported 13-F value include BlackRock,, VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, STATE STREET, based on the most recent SEC filings. NSC trades on the NYSE exchange and files with the SEC under CIK 702165. 13F Pro's AI research platform runs 10 specialized AI analysts — value, growth, momentum, macro, and activist specialists — that debate NSC daily and publish AI-generated analysis with cited SEC sources. The platform aggregates historical XBRL financial facts, 10-Q and 10-K filings, insider Form 4 transactions, and institutional 13-F holdings for NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP directly from SEC EDGAR. NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP's 13F Pro composite quality score has ranged between 8 and 74 since 2021, currently 70.8 — an improving long-term trajectory across 56 quarterly and live scoring snapshots.
What's Driving NSC's Business? Latest 10-Q Breakdown
AI-extracted from NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP's 10-Q filed 2026-04-24 — Q1 2026 (quarter ended March 31, 2026). Every figure is machine-verified against the filing text on SEC EDGAR.
Norfolk Southern reported flat revenue of $3.0B in Q1 2026 as merger-related costs ($52M) and absence of prior-year Eastern Ohio incident insurance recoveries pressured earnings 27% YoY to $547M, despite disciplined expense control.
Biggest Revenue Drivers
Total revenue: $2,998M—% YoY
Higher volume in agriculture/forest/consumer products and chemicals, partially offset by lower metals/construction shipments due to severe winter weather.
Lower volume partially offset by higher average revenue per unit driven by increased pricing.
Higher volumes offset by lower average revenue per unit driven by reduced pricing and adverse mix.
Largest Expense Items
Pay rate increases ($21M) and higher payroll taxes ($6M) offset by lower incentive compensation ($24M) and reduced employee activity levels ($11M).
Higher locomotive fuel prices; expected to increase further based on current commodity prices.
Higher costs associated with severe winter weather and technology-related expenses, plus higher automotive equipment expenses.
Employee retention agreements, third-party advisor fees, and legal services related to proposed Union Pacific transaction.
Margins: Operating ratio of 70.7% (adjusted 68.7% excluding merger costs and Incident impacts) reflects inflation and higher fuel costs partially offset by productivity savings and favorable revenue mix. Management maintained disciplined cost control but profitability pressured by merger expenses and absence of prior-year Incident insurance recoveries.
Watch Items from the Filing
- Merger Agreement with Union Pacific terminable by either party; $2.5B termination fee applies to specific trigger events; STB approval required; shareholder derivative lawsuits and Securities Act litigation ongoing; Merger Agreement restricts debt issuance and share repurchases without Union Pacific consent.
- Approximately 80% of railroad employees covered by collective bargaining agreements; new ratified labor agreements foreclose mandatory bargaining notices until November 1, 2029; self-help (strikes/work stoppages) prohibited during moratorium period.
AI-extracted and verified against SEC EDGAR filing text. Not investment advice.
Revenue
Q1 2026
$3.0B
Net Income
Q1 2026
$547.0M
Free Cash Flow
Q1 2026
$-38.0M
Operating Margin
Q1 2026
29.3%
D/E Ratio
Q1 2026
1.08
Revenue & Net Income
Earnings Per Share
Key Financials Over Time
Export Financial Table · Pro+Revenue
+0.5% YoYNet Income
+9.6% YoYOperating Income
+7.0% YoYEPS (Diluted)
+10.2% YoYTotal Assets
+3.6% YoYTotal Debt
-0.4% YoYOp. Cash Flow
+7.6% YoY| Metric | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 | FY 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.18B +0.5% | $12.12B -0.3% | $12.16B -4.6% | $12.74B +14.4% | $11.14B +13.8% | $9.79B |
| Net Income | $2.87B +9.6% | $2.62B +43.5% | $1.83B -44.1% | $3.27B +8.8% | $3.00B +49.3% | $2.01B |
| Operating Income | $4.36B +7.0% | $4.07B +42.8% | $2.85B -40.7% | $4.81B +8.1% | $4.45B +48.1% | $3.00B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $12.75 +10.2% | $11.57 +44.3% | $8.02 -42.2% | $13.88 +14.6% | $12.11 +54.5% | $7.84 |
| Total Assets | $45.24B +3.6% | $43.68B +4.9% | $41.65B +7.1% | $38.88B +1.0% | $38.49B +1.4% | $37.96B |
| Total Debt | $17.69B -0.4% | $17.76B +3.4% | $17.18B +8.2% | $15.88B +10.4% | $14.39B +13.5% | $12.68B |
| Operating Cash Flow | $4.36B +7.6% | $4.05B +27.5% | $3.18B -24.7% | $4.22B -0.8% | $4.25B +17.0% | $3.64B |
AI Insight: NSC Financial Trends
Norfolk Southern faces a profitability cliff in Q1 2026, with net income down 23% YoY and operating cash flow collapsing 64% sequentially.
• Net income declined from $750M in Q1 2025 to $547M in Q1 2026, a 27% year-over-year drop.
• Operating margin compressed to 29.3% in Q1 2026 from 38.3% in Q1 2025, driven by falling operating income.
• Operating cash flow plummeted to $344M in Q1 2026 from $1,077M in Q2 2025, signaling severe cash generation stress.
⚠ Total debt rose to $17,694M in Q4 2025, then improved to $17,101M in Q1 2026; leverage trajectory unclear.
⚠ Revenue flat-to-declining across eight quarters ($3,044M to $2,998M); no growth momentum evident.
AI Insight: NSC Ratio Trends
Norfolk Southern's profitability and returns have deteriorated sharply over nine quarters, with operating margin and ROIC both falling below 30% and 11% respectively.
• Operating margin collapsed from 37.2% (Q2 2024) to 29.2% (Q1 2026), a 8pp decline. NPM fell from 24.2% to 18.2% over same period.
• ROIC declined 4.1pp from 14.8% (Q2 2024) to 10.7% (Q1 2026), signaling deteriorating capital efficiency.
• Leverage improved: D/E ratio fell from 1.36 to 1.08, reflecting debt reduction or equity strengthening.
⚠ Q1 2026 marks six consecutive quarters of margin contraction, with steepest declines in Q4 2025–Q1 2026 (4pp each quarter).
⚠ ROE dropped to 13.8% (Q1 2026), lowest in dataset; ROA fell to 4.9%, suggesting operational or demand challenges.
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Top Institutional Holders of NSC
BlackRock, Inc.
$4.4B15,276,111 shVANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
$4.2B14,586,659 shSTATE STREET CORP
$2.8B9,834,046 shDODGE & COX
$1.8B6,257,750 shGEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
$1.5B5,076,188 shMILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC
$1.3B4,584,086 shVANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC
$1.2B4,025,893 shPentwater Capital Management LP
$924.1M3,220,000 shBANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/
$918.7M3,201,093 shNORTHERN TRUST CORP
$757.0M2,637,668 sh
| Fund | Value | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc. | $4.4B | 15,276,111 |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $4.2B | 14,586,659 |
| STATE STREET CORP | $2.8B | 9,834,046 |
| DODGE & COX | $1.8B | 6,257,750 |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | $1.5B | 5,076,188 |
| MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC | $1.3B | 4,584,086 |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | $1.2B | 4,025,893 |
| Pentwater Capital Management LP | $924.1M | 3,220,000 |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | $918.7M | 3,201,093 |
| NORTHERN TRUST CORP | $757.0M | 2,637,668 |
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Popular Research
Is NSC a good stock to buy?
13F Pro's AI-powered analysis of NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC) draws on SEC EDGAR-sourced fundamentals, institutional 13F holdings, and insider Form 4 transactions in the Industrials sector (listed on NYSE). The 32-signal AI Quality Score, current rank, and full bull/bear verdict for NSC are available on the NSC stock profile dashboard — with the same data, AI insights, ratios, and institutional activity refreshed after every 10-K, 10-Q, 13F, and Form 4 filing.
Which hedge funds own NSC?
Institutional investors are required to disclose their holdings quarterly via SEC Form 13F. 13F Pro aggregates these filings to show which hedge funds, mutual funds, and asset managers are buying or selling NSC. Combined with insider transaction data from Form 4 filings and AI-powered analysis from 10 specialized research agents, 13F Pro provides a comprehensive view of NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP's investment landscape.