ERIE INDEMNITY CO(ERIE)Stock Analysis
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Rank #156 of 2,879 stocksTOP 10%
Rankings refresh quarterly once 80% of peers have filed (~45 days after quarter-end). Next update: ~Aug 14, 2026.
Revenue Growth
Profitability
Balance Sheet
Earnings Quality
Free Cash Flow
Institutional Flow
Revenue Scale
Dilution Risk
ERIE Stock Analysis & AI Quality Score
AI stock analysis and institutional research for ERIE INDEMNITY CO (ERIE), a Financials sector company. 13F Pro's AI-powered ranking engine scores ERIE at 74.6/100 on a 32-signal composite quality model, placing it at rank #156 of 2,879 stocks — the top 10% of the AI-ranked universe. ERIE scores in the top quartile across balance sheet strength (96.4), profitability (78.1), revenue scale (75.2). Areas of concern include institutional flow (30.6), which score below median versus the broader universe. Based on the latest XBRL financial filings (Q1 2026), ERIE INDEMNITY CO reports quarterly revenue of $1.0B, net income of $150.5M, an operating margin of 16.5%. Top institutional holders of ERIE by reported 13-F value include PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP,, VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, BlackRock,, based on the most recent SEC filings. ERIE trades on the Nasdaq exchange and files with the SEC under CIK 922621. 13F Pro's AI research platform runs 10 specialized AI analysts — value, growth, momentum, macro, and activist specialists — that debate ERIE daily and publish AI-generated analysis with cited SEC sources. The platform aggregates historical XBRL financial facts, 10-Q and 10-K filings, insider Form 4 transactions, and institutional 13-F holdings for ERIE INDEMNITY CO directly from SEC EDGAR. ERIE INDEMNITY CO's 13F Pro composite quality score has ranged between 58 and 81 since 2021, currently 74.6 — an improving long-term trajectory across 30 quarterly and live scoring snapshots.
What's Driving ERIE's Business? Latest 10-Q Breakdown
AI-extracted from ERIE INDEMNITY CO's 10-Q filed 2026-04-23 — Q1 2026 (quarter ended March 31, 2026). Every figure is machine-verified against the filing text on SEC EDGAR.
Erie Indemnity's Q1 net income rose 8.7% to $150.5M as operating income grew 10.2% on 4.2% management fee revenue growth from 3.6% premium growth at the Exchange.
Biggest Revenue Drivers
Total revenue: $1,011.9M+2.3% YoY
Based on 25% management fee rate applied to $3.2B direct and affiliated assumed premiums written by the Exchange, which grew 3.6% YoY.
Reimbursements for claims handling, life insurance, and investment management services provided to the Exchange.
Based on 0.59% allocation of direct and affiliated assumed premiums, recognized over four-year period for administrative services.
Service charges for multiple payment plans, late payment fees, policy reinstatement fees, and shared office space fees.
Largest Expense Items
Increase primarily due to higher agent incentive compensation from improved profitability and higher scheduled commissions on premium growth, partially offset by lower professional fees.
Driven by increase in agent incentive compensation due to improved underwriting profitability and higher scheduled commissions from premium growth.
Claims handling, investment management, and life insurance management service costs, recorded gross with corresponding reimbursement revenue.
Increased primarily due to higher pension costs and increased compensation.
Watch Items from the Filing
- Concentration risk: The Exchange is the sole customer, representing 100% of management fee revenue. Net receivables from the Exchange totaled $743.2M at March 31, 2026, with only a $0.7M allowance for credit losses.
- New business premiums declined 9.5% YoY to $345M in Q1 2026, with new business policies written down 10.4%, signaling potential headwind to future growth despite 5.4% renewal business growth.
- Litigation risk: Fiduciary duty case regarding management fee setting remanded to state court after Supreme Court denial of certiorari on March 23, 2026; trial court previously found no basis to enjoin proceedings, exposing company to potential damages for 2019-2020 fee period.
- Year-over-year policies in force decreased 1.7% in Q1 2026 versus growth of 3.2% in Q1 2025, indicating retention pressure despite high 88.0% policy retention ratio.
- Investment portfolio unrealized losses increased to $11.3M net of taxes at March 31, 2026 from $1.3M net unrealized gains at year-end 2025, driven by rising interest rate environment.
AI-extracted and verified against SEC EDGAR filing text. Not investment advice.
Revenue
Q1 2026
$1.0B
Net Income
Q1 2026
$150.5M
Free Cash Flow
Q1 2026
$54.5M
Operating Margin
Q1 2026
16.5%
Revenue & Net Income
Earnings Per Share
Key Financials Over Time
Export Financial Table · Pro+Revenue
+7.2% YoYNet Income
-6.8% YoYOperating Income
+6.0% YoYTotal Assets
+16.2% YoYTotal Debt
Op. Cash Flow
+12.3% YoY| Metric | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 | FY 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.07B +7.2% | $3.80B +16.1% | $3.27B +15.1% | $2.84B +7.8% | $2.63B +6.3% | $2.48B |
| Net Income | $559.3M -6.8% | $600.3M +34.6% | $446.1M +49.4% | $298.6M +0.2% | $297.9M -6.0% | $316.8M |
| Operating Income | $717.2M +6.0% | $676.5M +30.0% | $520.3M +38.3% | $376.2M +18.3% | $318.1M -11.0% | $357.3M |
| Total Assets | $3.36B +16.2% | $2.89B +16.9% | $2.47B +10.4% | $2.24B -0.1% | $2.24B +11.2% | $2.02B |
| Total Debt | — | — | — | $0.00 -100.0% | $93.8M -4.1% | $97.8M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $686.7M +12.3% | $611.2M +60.3% | $381.2M +4.1% | $366.2M -9.1% | $402.8M +10.5% | $364.5M |
AI Insight: ERIE Financial Trends
Erie's operating income held steady at $167M in Q1 2026, but net income collapsed to $63M in Q4 2025 — a sharp divergence signaling a large below-the-line hit.
• Revenue grew from $990M in Q2 2024 to $1,067M in Q3 2025, a ~8% rise, though seasonal Q4 dips persist ($924M, $951M).
• Equity expanded consistently from $1,829M in Q2 2024 to $2,354M in Q1 2026, reflecting retained earnings accumulation.
• Q4 2025 net income plunged to $63M versus $183M in Q3 2025, even as operating income held at $158M — implying a significant non-operating charge.
• Operating cash flow dropped to $92M in Q1 2026, the second-lowest in the dataset, after peaking at $219M in Q3 2025.
⚠ Q4 2025 net income of $63M vs. op income of $158M — a $95M gap needs explanation; recurrence risk is high.
⚠ Op CF of $92M in Q1 2026 is notably weak relative to $167M op income; cash conversion deterioration warrants monitoring.
⚠ No debt reported across all periods; clarity on off-balance-sheet obligations or insurance reserves would sharpen leverage picture.
AI Insight: ERIE Ratio Trends
A Q4 2025 net margin collapse to 6.7% drags TTM profitability well below mid-2024 peaks, signaling a material one-off hit that investors must scrutinize.
• Net profit margin fell sharply from 17.1% in Q3 2025 to 6.7% in Q4 2025, the lowest reading in the entire dataset.
• ROIC has contracted from 41.6% in Q2 2024 to 28.3% in Q1 2026, a decline of over 13 percentage points.
• Q1 2026 NPM partially recovered to 14.9% from the Q4 2025 trough of 6.7%, suggesting the Q4 event may be isolated.
• Operating margin has been range-bound between 15.3% and 19.6% since Q2 2024, showing no clear directional trend.
⚠ Q4 2025 ROE cratered to 11.1% from 31.7% the prior quarter — identify whether the driver was a reserve charge or investment loss.
⚠ TTM ROIC of 31.1% sits well below the 41.6% peak; monitor whether Q2–Q3 2026 quarters restore the prior range.
⚠ Q1 2025 also showed weakness (OpMargin 15.3%, ROIC 29.3%), suggesting Q1 seasonality may persistently pressure annual returns.
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Available Research
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Top Institutional Holders of ERIE
PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC.
$1.2B4,909,034 shVANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
$409.8M1,630,683 shBlackRock, Inc.
$397.4M1,581,166 shSTATE STREET CORP
$347.6M1,383,027 shVANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC
$277.9M1,105,889 shInvesco Ltd.
$250.4M996,546 shGEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
$216.0M862,023 shCHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC
$192.0M763,989 shProShare Advisors LLC
$150.3M597,974 shBANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/
$120.6M479,782 sh
| Fund | Value | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC. | $1.2B | 4,909,034 |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $409.8M | 1,630,683 |
| BlackRock, Inc. | $397.4M | 1,581,166 |
| STATE STREET CORP | $347.6M | 1,383,027 |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | $277.9M | 1,105,889 |
| Invesco Ltd. | $250.4M | 996,546 |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | $216.0M | 862,023 |
| CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC | $192.0M | 763,989 |
| ProShare Advisors LLC | $150.3M | 597,974 |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | $120.6M | 479,782 |
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Is ERIE a good stock to buy?
13F Pro's AI-powered analysis of ERIE INDEMNITY CO (ERIE) draws on SEC EDGAR-sourced fundamentals, institutional 13F holdings, and insider Form 4 transactions in the Financials sector (listed on Nasdaq). The 32-signal AI Quality Score, current rank, and full bull/bear verdict for ERIE are available on the ERIE stock profile dashboard — with the same data, AI insights, ratios, and institutional activity refreshed after every 10-K, 10-Q, 13F, and Form 4 filing.
Which hedge funds own ERIE?
Institutional investors are required to disclose their holdings quarterly via SEC Form 13F. 13F Pro aggregates these filings to show which hedge funds, mutual funds, and asset managers are buying or selling ERIE. Combined with insider transaction data from Form 4 filings and AI-powered analysis from 10 specialized research agents, 13F Pro provides a comprehensive view of ERIE INDEMNITY CO's investment landscape.