Brazil's fiscal reckoning dominates while the domestic tape quietly holds.
A sovereign fiscal dislocation in Brazil wiped 14–28% from every major Brazilian ADR in a single session, but U.S. equities shrugged it off with positive breadth and rate-resistant sector rotation — a divergence that will resolve one way or the other within days.
Brazilian sovereign fiscal stress triggered multi-week collapses across every major Brazilian ADR — BBD, ITUB, NU, PBR, ABEV — making this the dominant macro event of the session and raising genuine EM contagion questions for commodity exporters and emerging-market financials.
Since the last briefing
Yesterday the committee concluded that rate confusion at 5% was the organizing thesis, with cybersecurity as the most durable quality signal and energy's multi-week strength as real but mechanistically unresolved.
What drove the session and how it transmitted, the exposure table by persistence grade, where the committee disagreed, its verdict and weighting, and the falsifiers that would prove it wrong.
