Vistra Corp.(VST)Stock Analysis
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Rank #719 of 2,879 stocksTOP 25%
Rankings refresh quarterly once 80% of peers have filed (~45 days after quarter-end). Next update: ~Aug 14, 2026.
Revenue Growth
Profitability
Balance Sheet
Earnings Quality
Free Cash Flow
Institutional Flow
Revenue Scale
Dilution Risk
VST Stock Analysis & AI Quality Score
AI stock analysis and institutional research for Vistra Corp. (VST), a Utilities sector company. 13F Pro's AI-powered ranking engine scores VST at 62.9/100 on a 32-signal composite quality model, placing it at rank #719 of 2,879 stocks — the top 25% of the AI-ranked universe. VST scores in the top quartile across revenue scale (92.1). Areas of concern include institutional flow (17.6), which score below median versus the broader universe. Based on the latest XBRL financial filings (Q1 2026), Vistra Corp. reports quarterly revenue of $5.6B, net income of $1.0B, free cash flow of $316.0M. Top institutional holders of VST by reported 13-F value include BlackRock,, VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT, based on the most recent SEC filings. VST trades on the NYSE exchange and files with the SEC under CIK 1692819. 13F Pro's AI research platform runs 10 specialized AI analysts — value, growth, momentum, macro, and activist specialists — that debate VST daily and publish AI-generated analysis with cited SEC sources. The platform aggregates historical XBRL financial facts, 10-Q and 10-K filings, insider Form 4 transactions, and institutional 13-F holdings for Vistra Corp. directly from SEC EDGAR. Vistra Corp.'s 13F Pro composite quality score has ranged between 8 and 74 since 2021, currently 62.9 — a declining long-term trajectory across 56 quarterly and live scoring snapshots.
Revenue
Q1 2026
$5.6B
Net Income
Q1 2026
$1.0B
Free Cash Flow
Q1 2026
$316.0M
ROIC
Q1 2026
6.0%
D/E Ratio
Q1 2026
3.76
Revenue & Net Income
Earnings Per Share
Key Financials Over Time
Export Financial Table · Pro+Revenue
+3.0% YoYNet Income
-64.5% YoYOperating Income
-53.3% YoYEPS (Diluted)
-68.9% YoYTotal Assets
+10.0% YoYTotal Debt
+16.7% YoYOp. Cash Flow
-10.8% YoY| Metric | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 | FY 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.74B +3.0% | $17.22B +16.5% | $14.78B +7.7% | $13.73B +13.7% | $12.08B +2.3% | $11.81B |
| Net Income | $944.0M -64.5% | $2.66B +78.1% | $1.49B +221.7% | $-1.23B +3.7% | $-1.27B -237.3% | $928.0M |
| Operating Income | $1.91B -53.3% | $4.08B +53.4% | $2.66B +326.1% | $-1.18B +22.3% | $-1.51B -176.0% | $1.99B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.18 -68.9% | $7.00 +95.5% | $3.58 +209.8% | $-3.26 -21.2% | $-2.69 -244.6% | $1.86 |
| Total Assets | $41.55B +10.0% | $37.77B +14.6% | $32.97B +0.5% | $32.79B +10.5% | $29.68B +11.5% | $26.62B |
| Total Debt | $20.04B +16.7% | $17.18B +2.9% | $16.69B +32.2% | $12.62B +17.6% | $10.73B +0.0% | $10.73B |
| Operating Cash Flow | $4.07B -10.8% | $4.56B -16.3% | $5.45B +1024.3% | $485.0M +335.4% | $-206.0M -107.5% | $2.74B |
AI Insight: VST Financial Trends
Q1 2026 revenue surged to $5,640M with net income of $1,029M — strongest Q1 profit in the visible data — but total debt climbed to a new high of $21,062M.
• Revenue grew from $3,933M in Q1 2025 to $5,640M in Q1 2026, a 43% year-over-year improvement for the same quarter.
• Operating income rebounded sharply from -$120M in Q1 2025 to $1,499M in Q1 2026, reversing the prior-year seasonal loss.
• Total debt rose from $18,542M in Q1 2025 to $21,062M in Q1 2026, the highest level across all eight quarters shown.
• Operating cash flow in Q2 and Q3 2025 fell to $572M and $599M respectively, well below $1,196M–$1,702M levels seen in 2024.
⚠ Total debt jumped $1,018M sequentially to $21,062M in Q1 2026 — sustainability of leverage at this level warrants close monitoring.
⚠ Equity recovered to $5,597M in Q1 2026 after dipping to $4,823M; continued rebuilding would signal balance-sheet stabilization.
⚠ Q4 seasonality consistently compresses margins; Q4 2025 net income of $233M vs. Q3 2025's $652M confirms the recurring pattern.
AI Insight: VST Ratio Trends
Q1 2026 marks Vistra's strongest single-quarter profitability in six quarters, though elevated leverage near 3.76x D/E remains a structural concern.
• Operating margin rebounded sharply to 26.6% in Q1 2026 from -3.0% in Q1 2025, reversing a year-ago loss quarter.
• ROIC surged to 22.5% in Q1 2026 versus -2.1% in Q1 2025 and 7.5% in Q4 2025, signaling strong capital efficiency recovery.
• Net profit margin expanded to 18.2% in Q1 2026, the highest reading outside the anomalous Q3 2024 spike of 30.0%.
• Results are highly seasonal: Q3 peaks (41.2% OpMargin in Q3 2024, 20.9% in Q3 2025) contrast with weak Q4 and Q1 quarters historically.
⚠ D/E ratio climbed to 3.93x in Q4 2025 — the highest in the dataset — before easing to 3.76x; leverage trajectory warrants close monitoring.
⚠ TTM ROIC of 13.2% lags Q1 2026's 22.5% annualized read, suggesting one strong quarter may flatter the underlying full-year return profile.
⚠ Q3 2024's 49.4% ROIC spike has not been replicated; whether Q3 2025's 19.4% or Q1 2026's 22.5% represents the new normal is unresolved.
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Available Research
13F Pro tracks comprehensive data for Vistra Corp. including:
Top Institutional Holders of VST
BlackRock, Inc.
$4.3B28,480,341 shVANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
$3.2B21,393,960 shVANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC
$2.5B16,902,218 shSTATE STREET CORP
$2.5B16,770,480 shFMR LLC
$2.4B15,808,007 shGEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
$1.4B9,033,671 shMORGAN STANLEY
$1.2B8,256,938 shJANE STREET GROUP, LLC
$982.5M6,535,500 shLONE PINE CAPITAL LLC
$930.2M6,187,585 shUBS Group AG
$691.2M4,597,984 sh
| Fund | Value | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc. | $4.3B | 28,480,341 |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $3.2B | 21,393,960 |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | $2.5B | 16,902,218 |
| STATE STREET CORP | $2.5B | 16,770,480 |
| FMR LLC | $2.4B | 15,808,007 |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | $1.4B | 9,033,671 |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $1.2B | 8,256,938 |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLC | $982.5M | 6,535,500 |
| LONE PINE CAPITAL LLC | $930.2M | 6,187,585 |
| UBS Group AG | $691.2M | 4,597,984 |
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Popular Research
Is VST a good stock to buy?
13F Pro's AI-powered analysis of Vistra Corp. (VST) draws on SEC EDGAR-sourced fundamentals, institutional 13F holdings, and insider Form 4 transactions in the Utilities sector (listed on NYSE). The 32-signal AI Quality Score, current rank, and full bull/bear verdict for VST are available on the VST stock profile dashboard — with the same data, AI insights, ratios, and institutional activity refreshed after every 10-K, 10-Q, 13F, and Form 4 filing.
Which hedge funds own VST?
Institutional investors are required to disclose their holdings quarterly via SEC Form 13F. 13F Pro aggregates these filings to show which hedge funds, mutual funds, and asset managers are buying or selling VST. Combined with insider transaction data from Form 4 filings and AI-powered analysis from 10 specialized research agents, 13F Pro provides a comprehensive view of Vistra Corp.'s investment landscape.