Vistra Corp.(VST)Stock Analysis
AI analysis on 2,800+ stocks →Deep AI analysis on 2,800+ stocks →13F Pro Quality Score
Rank #166 of 2,961 stocksTOP 10%
Rankings refresh quarterly once 80% of peers have filed (~45 days after quarter-end). Next update: ~Nov 14, 2026.
Revenue Growth
Profitability
Balance Sheet
Earnings Quality
Free Cash Flow
Institutional Flow
Revenue Scale
Dilution Risk
VST Stock Analysis & AI Quality Score
Data updated 2026-09-11AI stock analysis and institutional research for Vistra Corp. (VST), a Utilities sector company. 13F Pro's AI-powered ranking engine scores VST at 71.9/100 on a 32-signal composite quality model, placing it at rank #166 of 2,961 stocks — the top 10% of the AI-ranked universe. VST scores in the top quartile across revenue scale (92.1), institutional flow (86.2). Based on the latest XBRL financial filings (Q2 2026), Vistra Corp. reports quarterly revenue of $4.0B, net income of $305.0M, an operating margin of 13.8%. Top institutional holders of VST by reported 13-F value include BlackRock, VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT, based on the most recent SEC filings. VST trades on the NYSE exchange and files with the SEC under CIK 1692819. 13F Pro's AI research platform runs 10 specialized AI analysts — value, growth, momentum, macro, and activist specialists — that debate VST daily and publish AI-generated analysis with cited SEC sources. The platform aggregates historical XBRL financial facts, 10-Q and 10-K filings, insider Form 4 transactions, and institutional 13-F holdings for Vistra Corp. directly from SEC EDGAR. Vistra Corp.'s 13F Pro composite quality score has ranged between 40 and 74 since 2021, currently 71.9 — a stable long-term trajectory across 68 quarterly and live scoring snapshots.
What's Driving VST's Business? Latest 10-Q Breakdown
✓ 36/36 datapoints verifiedAI-extracted from Vistra Corp.'s 10-Q filed 2026-08-10 — Q2 FY2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026). Every figure is machine-verified against the filing text on SEC EDGAR.
Vistra's Q2 FY2026 revenue fell 5% YoY to $4.0B on a swing to unrealized hedging losses, while net income held roughly flat at $305M as realized wholesale and retail margins improved and the company advanced AI-driven growth (Cogentrix acquisition, Meta/AWS nuclear PPAs, $1B KKR Helix Fund commitment).
Biggest Revenue Drivers
Higher retail contractual rates, partially offset by lower ERCOT sales volumes (18,326 GWh vs. 19,885 GWh).
Growth driven by higher contractual rates with roughly flat sales volumes.
AI-extracted and verified against SEC EDGAR filing text. Not investment advice.
Revenue
Q2 2026
$4.0B
Net Income
Q2 2026
$305.0M
Free Cash Flow
Q2 2026
$334.0M
Operating Margin
Q2 2026
13.8%
ROIC
Q2 2026
8.2%
D/E Ratio
Q2 2026
3.92
Revenue & Net Income
Earnings Per Share
Key Financials Over Time
Export Financial Table · ProRevenue
+3.0% YoYNet Income
-64.5% YoYOperating Income
-53.3% YoYEPS (Diluted)
-68.9% YoYTotal Assets
+10.0% YoYTotal Debt
+16.7% YoYOp. Cash Flow
-10.8% YoYFree Cash Flow
-47.0% YoY| Metric | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 | FY 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.74B +3.0% | $17.22B +16.5% | $14.78B +7.7% | $13.73B +13.7% | $12.08B +5.5% | $11.44B |
| Net Income | $944.0M -64.5% | $2.66B +78.1% | $1.49B +221.7% | $-1.23B +3.7% | $-1.27B -300.3% | $636.0M |
| Operating Income | $1.91B -53.3% | $4.08B +53.4% | $2.66B +326.1% | $-1.18B +22.3% | $-1.51B -199.7% | $1.52B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.18 -68.9% | $7.00 +95.5% | $3.58 +209.8% | $-3.26 -21.2% | $-2.69 -306.9% | $1.30 |
| Total Assets | $41.55B +10.0% | $37.77B +14.6% | $32.97B +0.5% | $32.79B +10.5% | $29.68B +17.8% | $25.21B |
| Total Debt | $20.04B +16.7% | $17.18B +2.9% | $16.69B +32.2% | $12.62B +17.6% | $10.73B +15.0% | $9.33B |
| Operating Cash Flow | $4.07B -10.8% | $4.56B -16.3% | $5.45B +1024.3% | $485.0M +335.4% | $-206.0M -106.2% | $3.34B |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.32B -47.0% | $2.48B -34.2% | $3.78B +562.9% | $-816.0M +34.1% | $-1.24B -159.6% | $2.08B |
AI Insight: VST Financial Trends
Vistra swung to profitability in Q1 2026 but debt surged 28% year-over-year, offsetting operational gains.
• Net income recovered to $1,029M in Q1 2026 after $268M loss in Q1 2025; operating income reached $1,499M.
• Operating cash flow averaged $1,180M over trailing four quarters, relatively stable despite revenue volatility.
• Total debt climbed to $21,471M in Q2 2026 from $15,515M in Q3 2024—37% increase over 21 months.
⚠ Debt-to-equity ratio deteriorated to 3.91x in Q2 2026 from 2.85x in Q3 2024; equity contracted 1%.
⚠ Q2 2026 revenue declined to $4,017M, lowest since Q1 2025, despite strong Q1 2026 rebound.
AI Insight: VST Ratio Trends
Vistra shows extreme quarterly volatility with no consistent profitability trend; TTM metrics mask underlying operating instability.
• Operating margin swung from -3.0% (Q1 2025) to +26.6% (Q1 2026), then fell to 13.8% (Q2 2026)—persistent quarter-to-quarter swings.
• ROIC collapsed from 49.4% (Q3 2024) to -2.1% (Q1 2025), recovered to 22.5% (Q1 2026), then fell to 8.2% (Q2 2026).
• Leverage edged higher: D/E rose from 2.85 (Q3 2024) to 3.92 (Q2 2026), offsetting occasional margin spikes.
⚠ Q1 2026 showed exceptional 73.5% ROE; Q2 2026 collapsed to 22.2%—pattern suggests one-time events or accounting swings, not operational strength.
⚠ NPM deteriorated from 18.2% (Q1 2026) to 7.6% (Q2 2026); if Q2 represents run-rate, earnings power is materially lower.
Get alerted when VST's score changes
Free account: watchlist tracking, the daily AI brief, and the AI screener.
Available Research
13F Pro tracks comprehensive data for Vistra Corp. including:
Top Institutional Holders of VST
BlackRock, Inc.
$4.6B29,064,465 shVANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
$3.4B21,393,858 shVANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC
$2.7B16,939,291 shSTATE STREET CORP
$2.7B16,850,452 shFMR LLC
$2.2B14,160,202 shGEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
$1.4B9,037,395 shMORGAN STANLEY
$1.4B8,880,730 shJANE STREET GROUP, LLC
$1.3B8,065,900 shNORGES BANK
$921.8M5,811,201 shUBS Group AG
$856.4M5,398,501 sh
| Fund | Value | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc. | $4.6B | 29,064,465 |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $3.4B | 21,393,858 |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | $2.7B | 16,939,291 |
| STATE STREET CORP | $2.7B | 16,850,452 |
| FMR LLC | $2.2B | 14,160,202 |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | $1.4B | 9,037,395 |
| MORGAN STANLEY | $1.4B | 8,880,730 |
| JANE STREET GROUP, LLC | $1.3B | 8,065,900 |
| NORGES BANK | $921.8M | 5,811,201 |
| UBS Group AG | $856.4M | 5,398,501 |
Companies Similar to VST
Ranked by quality-profile closeness and shared hedge-fund ownership — not just sector membership.
Constellation Energy Corp
WASTE MANAGEMENT INC
NRG ENERGY, INC.
REPUBLIC SERVICES, INC.
AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC
CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC
PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC
ENTERGY CORP /DE/
Similarity is computed from the 8 composite sub-scores and latest-quarter 13F conviction holdings (index-style filers excluded). Refreshed monthly.
More Utilities Companies
View all Utilities →Put VST on your watchlist
Track score changes the day Vistra Corp. files with the SEC, follow the hedge funds that own it, screen 2,800+ AI-scored stocks, and get the daily brief — free.
Free tier includes 13F data, economic indicators, and market overview. Pro starts at $6.67/mo (billed annually).
Popular Research
Is VST a good stock to buy?
13F Pro's AI-powered analysis of Vistra Corp. (VST) draws on SEC EDGAR-sourced fundamentals, institutional 13F holdings, and insider Form 4 transactions in the Utilities sector (listed on NYSE). The 32-signal AI Quality Score, current rank, and full bull/bear verdict for VST are available on the VST stock profile dashboard — with the same data, AI insights, ratios, and institutional activity refreshed after every 10-K, 10-Q, 13F, and Form 4 filing. VST is classified as a large company.
Which hedge funds own VST?
Institutional investors are required to disclose their holdings quarterly via SEC Form 13F. 13F Pro aggregates these filings to show which hedge funds, mutual funds, and asset managers are buying or selling VST. Combined with insider transaction data from Form 4 filings and AI-powered analysis from 10 specialized research agents, 13F Pro provides a comprehensive view of Vistra Corp.'s investment landscape.