Toll Brothers, Inc.(TOL)Stock Analysis
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Rank #420 of 2,879 stocksTOP 25%
Rankings refresh quarterly once 80% of peers have filed (~45 days after quarter-end). Next update: ~Aug 14, 2026.
Revenue Growth
Profitability
Balance Sheet
Earnings Quality
Free Cash Flow
Institutional Flow
Revenue Scale
Dilution Risk
TOL Stock Analysis & AI Quality Score
AI stock analysis and institutional research for Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL), a Industrials sector company. 13F Pro's AI-powered ranking engine scores TOL at 68.3/100 on a 32-signal composite quality model, placing it at rank #420 of 2,879 stocks — the top 25% of the AI-ranked universe. TOL scores in the top quartile across revenue scale (87.0), balance sheet strength (82.4). Based on the latest XBRL financial filings (Q2 2026), Toll Brothers, Inc. reports quarterly revenue of $2.5B, net income of $260.6M, an operating margin of 13.7%. Top institutional holders of TOL by reported 13-F value include BlackRock,, GREENHAVEN ASSOCIATES, Capital World Investors, based on the most recent SEC filings. TOL trades on the NYSE exchange and files with the SEC under CIK 794170. 13F Pro's AI research platform runs 10 specialized AI analysts — value, growth, momentum, macro, and activist specialists — that debate TOL daily and publish AI-generated analysis with cited SEC sources. The platform aggregates historical XBRL financial facts, 10-Q and 10-K filings, insider Form 4 transactions, and institutional 13-F holdings for Toll Brothers, Inc. directly from SEC EDGAR. Toll Brothers, Inc.'s 13F Pro composite quality score has ranged between 8 and 69 since 2025, currently 68.3 — an improving long-term trajectory across 37 quarterly and live scoring snapshots.
What's Driving TOL's Business? Latest 10-Q Breakdown
✓ 24/24 datapoints verifiedAI-extracted from Toll Brothers, Inc.'s 10-Q filed 2026-05-29 — Q2 FY2026 (six months ended April 30, 2026). Every figure is machine-verified against the filing text on SEC EDGAR.
Home sales revenues declined 4% YoY to $4.37B as delivery volumes fell 10%, though net contracts signed rose 6% to $5.19B, reflecting stabilizing demand offset by elevated incentives.
Biggest Revenue Drivers
Total revenue: $4.68B+2% YoY
10% decrease in units delivered offset partially by 7% increase in average delivered price due to product/geographic mix.
Inclusion of Apartment Living portfolio disposition (undeveloped land and rental properties sold), generating $284.1M in revenues with $18.8M pre-tax gain.
Largest Expense Items
Increased as percentage of revenues (75.8% vs 74.4%) due to higher sales incentives and elevated inventory impairment charges.
Increased primarily from higher payroll and sales center operating costs from expanded community count, partially offset by reduced advertising spend.
Increased due to costs associated with Apartment Living portfolio and land parcel sales.
Margins: Home sales gross margin declined 160 basis points to 75.8% of revenues, primarily driven by elevated sales incentives to manage pace in softer market and increased inventory impairment charges ($44.2M vs $26.2M YoY), partially offset by favorable product/geographic mix. Operating income before taxes fell 11% despite stable revenue.
Watch Items from the Filing
- Backlog declined 8% in value to $6.32B (5,394 units) YoY; spec homes now represent larger portion of mix and turn within quarters, reducing backlog visibility; demand remains soft with elevated incentives expected to persist.
- Inventory impairment charges increased substantially to $44.2M (6 months) from $26.2M YoY; $32.5M in Q2 2026 vs $9.8M in Q2 2025, reflecting market pressures and community evaluations.
- Rental Property Joint Ventures impairment charges of $57.8M recorded in H1 2026 due to valuation declines; company sold $330M of Apartment Living assets to Kennedy Wilson but remains liable on loan guarantees up to $122.5M.
- Affirmative geographic concentration: South region alone delivered 31% of homes and generated 24% of revenues despite only 14% increase in communities; Mountain region revenues down 21% YoY on softer demand.
AI-extracted and verified against SEC EDGAR filing text. Not investment advice.
Revenue
Q2 2026
$2.5B
Net Income
Q2 2026
$260.6M
Free Cash Flow
Q2 2026
$110.0M
Operating Margin
Q2 2026
13.7%
Revenue & Net Income
Earnings Per Share
Key Financials Over Time
Export Financial Table · Pro+Revenue
+5.6% YoYNet Income
+22.1% YoYOperating Income
+35.2% YoYEPS (Diluted)
+37.7% YoYTotal Assets
+8.8% YoYOp. Cash Flow
+2.4% YoY| Metric | FY 2024 | FY 2022 | FY 2020 | FY 2018 | FY 2017 | FY 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.85B +5.6% | $10.28B +45.2% | $7.08B -0.9% | $7.14B +22.8% | $5.82B | — |
| Net Income | $1.57B +22.1% | $1.29B +188.0% | $446.6M -40.3% | $748.2M +39.7% | $535.5M +47.5% | $363.2M |
| Operating Income | $2.04B +35.2% | $1.51B +174.2% | $550.3M -30.0% | $786.2M +21.5% | $647.2M +44.8% | $446.9M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $15.01 +37.7% | $10.90 +220.6% | $3.40 -29.9% | $4.85 +53.0% | $3.17 +60.9% | $1.97 |
| Total Assets | $13.37B +8.8% | $12.29B +11.1% | $11.07B +8.0% | $10.24B +8.5% | $9.45B +2.6% | $9.21B |
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.01B +2.4% | $986.8M -2.1% | $1.01B | — | — | — |
AI Insight: TOL Financial Trends
Toll Brothers shows seasonal weakness in early 2026 with contracting operating cash flow and margin compression despite rising equity base.
• Operating margin compressed to 13.7% in Q2 2026 from 16.5% in Q4 2025, marking a 280bp decline over two quarters.
• Operating cash flow deteriorated sharply: $800M in Q4 2025 to $7M in Q1 2026, then recovered modestly to $134M in Q2 2026.
• Equity grew 14.3% from $7,415M in Q3 2024 to $8,475M in Q2 2026, reflecting retained earnings amid stable net margins around 9–14%.
⚠ Q1 2026 operating cash flow collapsed to $7M—first near-zero quarter in dataset. Monitor if seasonal or structural deterioration.
⚠ Operating income halved from $564M in Q4 2025 to $219M in Q1 2026. Early cycle weakness or demand softening requires clarification.
AI Insight: TOL Ratio Trends
Toll Brothers faces persistent cyclical weakness, with TTM returns down 30–50% from peak 2024 levels despite partial Q2 2026 recovery.
• Operating margin collapsed from 18.3% in Q4 2024 to 10.2% in Q1 2026, rebounding only to 13.7% in Q2 2026—still 4.6pp below Q4 2024.
• ROIC fell from 31.9% in Q4 2024 to 10.4% in Q1 2026, recovering to 16.4% in Q2 2026—remains 15.5pp below peak.
• Q1 results chronically weak: OpMargin 10.2%, ROE 10.0%, ROIC 10.4%—all mark seasonal/cyclical trough before Q2–Q4 rebound.
⚠ TTM ROIC at 19.1% vs. 31.9% in Q4 2024—25-month decline suggests demand or pricing pressure persisting into 2026.
⚠ Q2 2026 TTM metrics (OpMargin 14.6%, NPM 11.7%) remain materially compressed; unclear if Q3–Q4 2026 will restore 2024 peak profitability.
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Top Institutional Holders of TOL
BlackRock, Inc.
$1.4B9,949,088 shGREENHAVEN ASSOCIATES INC
$770.4M5,645,309 shCapital World Investors
$710.7M5,207,777 shVANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
$580.4M4,252,652 shVANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC
$569.1M4,170,253 shFMR LLC
$478.3M3,505,038 shSTATE STREET CORP
$458.5M3,359,665 shDIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
$408.1M2,990,447 shGEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
$324.8M2,379,639 shAQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
$238.0M1,766,487 sh
| Fund | Value | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc. | $1.4B | 9,949,088 |
| GREENHAVEN ASSOCIATES INC | $770.4M | 5,645,309 |
| Capital World Investors | $710.7M | 5,207,777 |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $580.4M | 4,252,652 |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | $569.1M | 4,170,253 |
| FMR LLC | $478.3M | 3,505,038 |
| STATE STREET CORP | $458.5M | 3,359,665 |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP | $408.1M | 2,990,447 |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | $324.8M | 2,379,639 |
| AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $238.0M | 1,766,487 |
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Popular Research
Is TOL a good stock to buy?
13F Pro's AI-powered analysis of Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) draws on SEC EDGAR-sourced fundamentals, institutional 13F holdings, and insider Form 4 transactions in the Industrials sector (listed on NYSE). The 32-signal AI Quality Score, current rank, and full bull/bear verdict for TOL are available on the TOL stock profile dashboard — with the same data, AI insights, ratios, and institutional activity refreshed after every 10-K, 10-Q, 13F, and Form 4 filing.
Which hedge funds own TOL?
Institutional investors are required to disclose their holdings quarterly via SEC Form 13F. 13F Pro aggregates these filings to show which hedge funds, mutual funds, and asset managers are buying or selling TOL. Combined with insider transaction data from Form 4 filings and AI-powered analysis from 10 specialized research agents, 13F Pro provides a comprehensive view of Toll Brothers, Inc.'s investment landscape.