PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/(PGR)Stock Analysis
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Rank #16 of 2,879 stocksTOP 1%
Rankings refresh quarterly once 80% of peers have filed (~45 days after quarter-end). Next update: ~Aug 14, 2026.
Revenue Growth
Profitability
Balance Sheet
Earnings Quality
Free Cash Flow
Institutional Flow
Revenue Scale
Dilution Risk
PGR Stock Analysis & AI Quality Score
AI stock analysis and institutional research for PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR), a Financials sector company. 13F Pro's AI-powered ranking engine scores PGR at 83.6/100 on a 32-signal composite quality model, placing it at rank #16 of 2,879 stocks — the top 1% of the AI-ranked universe. PGR scores in the top quartile across revenue scale (98.5), earnings quality (87.5), balance sheet strength (84.8). Based on the latest XBRL financial filings (Q1 2026), PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ reports quarterly revenue of $22.2B, net income of $2.8B, an operating margin of 16.1%. Top institutional holders of PGR by reported 13-F value include BlackRock,, VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, STATE STREET, based on the most recent SEC filings. PGR trades on the NYSE exchange and files with the SEC under CIK 80661. 13F Pro's AI research platform runs 10 specialized AI analysts — value, growth, momentum, macro, and activist specialists — that debate PGR daily and publish AI-generated analysis with cited SEC sources. The platform aggregates historical XBRL financial facts, 10-Q and 10-K filings, insider Form 4 transactions, and institutional 13-F holdings for PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ directly from SEC EDGAR. PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/'s 13F Pro composite quality score has ranged between 8 and 84 since 2021, currently 83.6 — an improving long-term trajectory across 56 quarterly and live scoring snapshots.
What's Driving PGR's Business? Latest 10-Q Breakdown
✓ 20/20 datapoints verifiedAI-extracted from PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/'s 10-Q filed 2026-05-04 — Q1 2026 (quarter ended March 31, 2026). Every figure is machine-verified against the filing text on SEC EDGAR.
Progressive earned $2.8B net income on $21.0B underwriting revenue with 13.6% underwriting margin, up 8% YoY in net premiums earned, adding 3.3M policies YoY.
Biggest Revenue Drivers
Total revenue: $22.2B+8.7% YoY
Growth driven by 9% increase in Personal Lines segment and 7% net premiums written growth across both channels.
Increase primarily reflects growth in invested assets and increase in recurring investment book yield.
Largest Expense Items
Increase driven by higher severity partially offset by decrease in catastrophe losses and favorable prior accident year development.
Increase reflects higher advertising spend of $1.5B, 20% greater than prior year quarter.
Increase primarily in employee compensation costs and higher allowance for credit losses on premiums receivable.
Margins: Companywide underwriting margin was 13.6% in Q1 2026 versus 14.0% in Q1 2025, reflecting stable loss ratios and underwriting expense ratios despite 20% increase in advertising spend. Personal Lines margin of 14.0% and Commercial Lines margin of 11.0% were relatively consistent with prior year.
Watch Items from the Filing
- Personal auto policy life expectancy trailing 12-month basis declined 8% YoY; trailing 3-month basis down 7%, driven by mix shift and increased marketplace competition.
- Personal property policies in force declined 17% YoY in volatile weather markets; company restricting growth and non-renewing policies in weather-exposed states to manage profitability.
- Litigation alleging improper claim valuations pending in multiple states; company believes losses are reasonably possible but neither probable nor estimable except for immaterial accruals.
- Company issued $1.5B of senior debt in March 2026; debt-to-total capital ratio increased to 20.7% from 18.5% year-end 2025, remaining below 30% policy target.
- Paid $7.9B in variable common share dividends in January 2026, representing $13.60 per share, with $8.0B total capital returned in Q1 through dividends and $478M share repurchases.
AI-extracted and verified against SEC EDGAR filing text. Not investment advice.
Revenue
Q1 2026
$22.2B
Net Income
Q1 2026
$2.8B
Free Cash Flow
Q1 2026
$4.3B
Operating Margin
Q1 2026
16.1%
D/E Ratio
Q1 2026
0.26
Revenue & Net Income
Earnings Per Share
Key Financials Over Time
Export Financial Table · Pro+Revenue
+41.2% YoYNet Income
+189.7% YoYEPS (Diluted)
+192.2% YoYTotal Assets
+38.7% YoYTotal Debt
+0.1% YoYOp. Cash Flow
+64.9% YoY| Metric | FY 2025 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 | FY 2020 | FY 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $87.67B +41.2% | $62.11B +25.2% | $49.61B +4.0% | $47.70B +11.8% | $42.66B +33.4% | $31.98B |
| Net Income | $11.31B +189.7% | $3.90B +440.6% | $722.0M -78.5% | $3.35B -41.3% | $5.70B +118.1% | $2.62B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $19.23 +192.2% | $6.58 +457.6% | $1.18 -79.2% | $5.66 -41.4% | $9.66 +118.6% | $4.42 |
| Total Assets | $123.04B +38.7% | $88.69B +17.5% | $75.47B +6.1% | $71.13B +11.0% | $64.10B +37.6% | $46.58B |
| Total Debt | $6.90B +0.1% | $6.89B +7.8% | $6.39B +30.4% | $4.90B -9.2% | $5.40B +22.5% | $4.40B |
| Operating Cash Flow | $17.55B +64.9% | $10.64B +55.4% | $6.85B -11.8% | $7.76B +12.4% | $6.91B +9.9% | $6.28B |
AI Insight: PGR Financial Trends
Progressive delivered strong revenue growth accelerating from $17.2B in Q1 2024 to $22.7B in Q4 2025, while maintaining stable profitability despite some quarterly volatility.
• Revenue grew 32% from Q1 2024 ($17.2B) to Q4 2025 ($22.7B), showing consistent quarterly expansion.
• Net income increased 27% from Q1 2024 ($2.3B) to Q4 2025 ($3.0B) despite mid-period fluctuations.
• Equity expanded 39% from $21.8B in Q1 2024 to $30.3B in Q4 2025, strengthening capital position.
• Total debt remained essentially flat at $6.9B throughout the period, improving leverage ratios.
⚠ Equity declined from $35.4B in Q3 2025 to $30.3B in Q4 2025, reversing prior growth trend.
⚠ Operating cash flow shows significant quarterly volatility, ranging from $3.0B to $5.2B across periods.
AI Insight: PGR Ratio Trends
Progressive's profitability recovered from Q2 2024 lows with operating margins reaching 18.1% in Q2 2025, while leverage declined to multi-quarter lows.
• Operating margin recovered from 10.3% trough in Q2 2024 to 18.1% peak in Q2 2025.
• Debt-to-equity ratio improved from 0.32 in Q1 2024 to 0.19 in Q3 2025.
• ROE volatility remains elevated, swinging from 25.0% in Q2 2024 to 39.0% in Q2 2025.
⚠ Operating margin declined from Q2 2025 peak of 18.1% to 16.2% in Q4 2025.
⚠ ROA dropped to 8.6% in Q3 2025 from 11.0% in Q2 2025.
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Top Institutional Holders of PGR
BlackRock, Inc.
$10.4B52,323,606 shVANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
$7.6B38,098,359 shSTATE STREET CORP
$5.1B25,870,710 shCapital Research Global Investors
$4.5B22,574,142 shGEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
$3.2B16,256,844 shCapital World Investors
$2.8B14,173,539 shBANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/
$2.6B12,874,152 shMASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/
$2.4B12,099,655 shVANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC
$2.3B11,696,220 shALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P.
$2.3B10,165,653 sh
| Fund | Value | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc. | $10.4B | 52,323,606 |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $7.6B | 38,098,359 |
| STATE STREET CORP | $5.1B | 25,870,710 |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $4.5B | 22,574,142 |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | $3.2B | 16,256,844 |
| Capital World Investors | $2.8B | 14,173,539 |
| BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ | $2.6B | 12,874,152 |
| MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/ | $2.4B | 12,099,655 |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | $2.3B | 11,696,220 |
| ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P. | $2.3B | 10,165,653 |
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Is PGR a good stock to buy?
13F Pro's AI-powered analysis of PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR) draws on SEC EDGAR-sourced fundamentals, institutional 13F holdings, and insider Form 4 transactions in the Financials sector (listed on NYSE). The 32-signal AI Quality Score, current rank, and full bull/bear verdict for PGR are available on the PGR stock profile dashboard — with the same data, AI insights, ratios, and institutional activity refreshed after every 10-K, 10-Q, 13F, and Form 4 filing.
Which hedge funds own PGR?
Institutional investors are required to disclose their holdings quarterly via SEC Form 13F. 13F Pro aggregates these filings to show which hedge funds, mutual funds, and asset managers are buying or selling PGR. Combined with insider transaction data from Form 4 filings and AI-powered analysis from 10 specialized research agents, 13F Pro provides a comprehensive view of PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/'s investment landscape.