MERCURY GENERAL CORP(MCY)Stock Analysis
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Rank #312 of 2,879 stocksTOP 25%
Rankings refresh quarterly once 80% of peers have filed (~45 days after quarter-end). Next update: ~Aug 14, 2026.
Revenue Growth
Profitability
Balance Sheet
Earnings Quality
Free Cash Flow
Institutional Flow
Revenue Scale
Dilution Risk
MCY Stock Analysis & AI Quality Score
AI stock analysis and institutional research for MERCURY GENERAL CORP (MCY), a Financials sector company. 13F Pro's AI-powered ranking engine scores MCY at 70.4/100 on a 32-signal composite quality model, placing it at rank #312 of 2,879 stocks — the top 25% of the AI-ranked universe. MCY scores in the top quartile across free cash flow (99.6), profitability (99.4), revenue growth (81.0). Areas of concern include revenue scale (7.3) and earnings quality (30.0), which score below median versus the broader universe. Based on the latest XBRL financial filings (Q1 2026), MERCURY GENERAL CORP reports quarterly revenue of $1.5B, net income of $190.4M, an operating margin of 15.3%. Top institutional holders of MCY by reported 13-F value include BlackRock,, Rubric Capital Management, DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS, based on the most recent SEC filings. MCY trades on the NYSE exchange and files with the SEC under CIK 64996. 13F Pro's AI research platform runs 10 specialized AI analysts — value, growth, momentum, macro, and activist specialists — that debate MCY daily and publish AI-generated analysis with cited SEC sources. The platform aggregates historical XBRL financial facts, 10-Q and 10-K filings, insider Form 4 transactions, and institutional 13-F holdings for MERCURY GENERAL CORP directly from SEC EDGAR. MERCURY GENERAL CORP's 13F Pro composite quality score has ranged between 50 and 79 since 2021, currently 70.4 — a stable long-term trajectory across 28 quarterly and live scoring snapshots.
What's Driving MCY's Business? Latest 10-Q Breakdown
AI-extracted from MERCURY GENERAL CORP's 10-Q filed 2026-05-05 — Q1 2026 (quarter ended March 31, 2026). Every figure is machine-verified against the filing text on SEC EDGAR.
Mercury General swung to $190.4M net income in Q1 2026 from $108.3M loss in Q1 2025, driven by 13.2% growth in net premiums earned and improved underwriting with 89.3% combined ratio.
Biggest Revenue Drivers
Total revenue: $1,539.8M+10.4% YoY
Rate increase in California homeowners line and increases in number of policies written in California automobile and homeowners lines, combined with decreases in ceded premiums earned.
Higher average invested assets, partially offset by lower yields on floating rate investments due to lower short-term market interest rates.
Decrease in fair value of fixed maturity securities primarily from increases in market interest rates.
Largest Expense Items
Amortization of acquisition costs increased with higher earned premiums.
Increases in profitability-based accruals and advertising expenses of $16.0M in Q1 2026 vs. $5.5M in Q1 2025.
Modest decline in interest costs on outstanding debt.
Margins: Combined ratio improved dramatically to 89.3% in Q1 2026 from 119.2% in Q1 2025, reflecting the absence of Palisades/Eaton wildfire losses, rate increases, and favorable claims development. Loss ratio declined to 64.2% from 95.1%, though offset partially by expense ratio increase to 25.1% from 24.0% due to higher advertising and profitability-based accruals.
Watch Items from the Filing
- Palisades and Eaton wildfires: Company recorded $448.9M net losses through Q1 2026, with $559M estimated subrogation recovery against Southern California Edison (55% of ultimate loss estimate). Unfavorable development of $57M on prior year catastrophe losses in Q1 2026.
- California regulatory requirements: New catastrophe modeling and reinsurance cost regulations effective July 2026 require Company to maintain at least 85% market share in distressed wildfire-prone areas (potentially increasing to 90%+ by 2029). May limit underwriting flexibility.
- Catastrophe reinsurance costs increased significantly: Annual reinsurance premium for treaty year ending June 30, 2026 is $237M vs. $105M for prior year, driven by higher coverage ($2,140M vs. $1,290M) and rate increases from reinsurers.
- Strong premium growth: Net premiums written increased 17.9% YoY to $1,550.1M, driven by California homeowners (12% rate increase effective March 2025, 6.9% more expected July 2026) and growth in automobile lines.
- Geographic and line concentration: California represents 82.9% of direct premiums written; private passenger auto is 59.8%, homeowners is 26.5%. Homeowners catastrophe exposure elevated despite reinsurance.
AI-extracted and verified against SEC EDGAR filing text. Not investment advice.
Revenue
Q1 2026
$1.5B
Net Income
Q1 2026
$190.4M
Free Cash Flow
Q1 2026
$308.8M
Operating Margin
Q1 2026
15.3%
Revenue & Net Income
Earnings Per Share
Key Financials Over Time
Export Financial Table · Pro+Revenue
+9.4% YoYNet Income
+15.6% YoYEPS (Diluted)
+15.6% YoYTotal Assets
+15.0% YoYTotal Debt
+0.0% YoYOp. Cash Flow
+4.8% YoY| Metric | FY 2025 | FY 2024 | FY 2023 | FY 2022 | FY 2021 | FY 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.99B +9.4% | $5.48B +18.3% | $4.63B +27.1% | $3.64B -8.8% | $3.99B +5.5% | $3.78B |
| Net Income | $541.1M +15.6% | $468.0M +385.8% | $96.3M +118.8% | $-512.7M -306.8% | $247.9M -33.8% | $374.6M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $9.77 +15.6% | $8.45 +385.6% | $1.74 +118.8% | $-9.26 -306.7% | $4.48 -33.8% | $6.77 |
| Total Assets | $9.56B +15.0% | $8.31B +17.0% | $7.10B +9.0% | $6.51B -3.8% | $6.77B +7.0% | $6.33B |
| Total Debt | $575.0M +0.0% | $575.0M +0.0% | $575.0M +43.8% | $400.0M +6.7% | $375.0M +0.0% | $375.0M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.09B +4.8% | $1.04B +128.9% | $453.0M +28.5% | $352.6M -29.7% | $501.6M -17.2% | $605.6M |
AI Insight: MCY Financial Trends
Mercury General's operating cash flow surged to $496M in Q3 2025 and net income hit $280M — the strongest quarter in the 8-period dataset — despite a sharp Q1 2025 loss of $108M from California wildfire exposure.
• Revenue grew steadily from $1,305M in Q2 2024 to $1,585M in Q3 2025, a 21% increase over five quarters.
• Operating cash flow recovered sharply: from -$69M in Q1 2025 to $496M in Q3 2025, then settled at $326M in Q1 2026.
• Net income swung from -$108M in Q1 2025 to $190M in Q1 2026, suggesting underwriting normalization post-wildfire losses.
• Total debt held flat at $575M in both Q4 2024 and Q4 2025, indicating no additional leverage was added over the year.
⚠ Q1 2025's $108M net loss and -$69M operating cash flow flag meaningful catastrophe-event vulnerability; California exposure remains a recurring risk.
⚠ Revenue dipped from $1,585M in Q3 2025 to $1,536M in Q4 2025, a modest sequential pullback worth monitoring for trend reversal.
⚠ Equity and operating income data are unavailable across all periods, limiting full assessment of capital efficiency and underwriting profitability.
AI Insight: MCY Ratio Trends
MCY staged a sharp profitability recovery through 2025 after a Q1 2025 loss, but momentum is fading as margins soften into Q1 2026.
• Operating margin swung from -10.2% in Q1 2025 to a peak of 22.1% in Q3 2025, a 32pp recovery within two quarters.
• Operating margin has since declined three consecutive quarters: 22.1% in Q3 2025, 16.2% in Q4 2025, 15.3% in Q1 2026.
• ROA followed the same arc, peaking at 12.0% in Q3 2025 before retreating to 7.7% in Q1 2026.
• TTM net profit margin of 13.7% and ROA of 8.5% confirm underlying profitability remains solidly positive on a full-year basis.
⚠ Three straight quarters of margin compression post-Q3 2025 peak warrant monitoring for structural underwriting cost pressure.
⚠ Q1 2025's -10.2% operating margin loss was a sharp one-quarter shock; watch for similar seasonal or catastrophe-driven disruptions in Q1 2026 actuals.
⚠ D/E, ROE, and ROIC are almost entirely absent across quarters, limiting leverage and capital-efficiency assessment.
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Top Institutional Holders of MCY
BlackRock, Inc.
$380.6M4,317,164 shRubric Capital Management LP
$189.9M2,154,504 shDIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
$189.5M2,149,647 shVANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC
$151.4M1,717,862 shVANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
$108.1M1,226,459 shSTATE STREET CORP
$96.9M1,099,091 shRENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC
$72.6M823,582 shAMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC
$71.7M813,320 shGEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC
$66.5M754,127 shDG Capital Management, LLC
$52.4M594,377 sh
| Fund | Value | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc. | $380.6M | 4,317,164 |
| Rubric Capital Management LP | $189.9M | 2,154,504 |
| DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP | $189.5M | 2,149,647 |
| VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | $151.4M | 1,717,862 |
| VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $108.1M | 1,226,459 |
| STATE STREET CORP | $96.9M | 1,099,091 |
| RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC | $72.6M | 823,582 |
| AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC | $71.7M | 813,320 |
| GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | $66.5M | 754,127 |
| DG Capital Management, LLC | $52.4M | 594,377 |
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Is MCY a good stock to buy?
13F Pro's AI-powered analysis of MERCURY GENERAL CORP (MCY) draws on SEC EDGAR-sourced fundamentals, institutional 13F holdings, and insider Form 4 transactions in the Financials sector (listed on NYSE). The 32-signal AI Quality Score, current rank, and full bull/bear verdict for MCY are available on the MCY stock profile dashboard — with the same data, AI insights, ratios, and institutional activity refreshed after every 10-K, 10-Q, 13F, and Form 4 filing.
Which hedge funds own MCY?
Institutional investors are required to disclose their holdings quarterly via SEC Form 13F. 13F Pro aggregates these filings to show which hedge funds, mutual funds, and asset managers are buying or selling MCY. Combined with insider transaction data from Form 4 filings and AI-powered analysis from 10 specialized research agents, 13F Pro provides a comprehensive view of MERCURY GENERAL CORP's investment landscape.