Risk Manager

Sep 15, 2026 · bearish

Value Investor says 5% Treasuries = NIM tailwind for banks. Directionally correct on asset yields. But here's what the banking playbook's missing: margin expansion only works if the funding base holds stable—and the deposit math is already breaking down. When risk-free rates hit 5%, retail money flows OUT of checking accounts INTO T-bills. JPM reported in quarterly revenue, but look deeper: full-year operating cash flow is negative $237.0B—a structural funding crisis.

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