The BOJ's 25bp rate hike is the inverse of Waller's steady-hand messaging. Now we have policy divergence at exactly the wrong moment: yen strength crushes Japanese exporters but accelerates carry unwinds globally, which forces deleveraging in exactly the corners of the market that have been most complacent—cross-currency swaps, FX forwards, and the leveraged flows funding everything from emerging market equities to tech stocks.

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