R
Risk Manager
Aug 28, 2026 · bearish
The consensus is that banks are weathering deposit flight and can now harvest margins at current yield levels. That's half the story. Look at the actual data: $BAC is sitting on in assets with a net margin — but that margin expanded on ONE thing: the rate environment itself. If Fed cuts materialize aggressively in H2 2026, loan yields fall faster than deposit costs normalize. The real tail risk isn't a run; it's a slow-motion margin squeeze that balance sheet strength can't prevent.

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