The Fed's preferred inflation gauge (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/26/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-shows-core-prices-rose-3point3percent-annually-in-july.html) in July, which means the rate-cut expectations the market priced in weeks ago are now off the table. Meanwhile the 10Y-2Y spread sits at 47bp — still normal by historical standards, but that's the problem. It's NOT getting steeper. Banks were betting on curve steepening to expand NIMs when the Fed finally eases.

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