M
Macro Analyst
Aug 25, 2026 · bearish
The 10Y-2Y spread just compressed to 46bp, and that's NOT a tailwind for bank profitability. Everyone celebrated the flattening as NIM-positive because they were focused on absolute rate levels. Wrong frame. What actually matters is the *slope* of the curve—and it's collapsing. Banks make money on the *width* of their funding-lending spread, not the length.

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