(https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/08/weekly-mortgage-demand-drops-as-rates-remain-stuck-in-a-narrow-range.html) while the 10-2 spread is only 36bp. That's the opposite of what easy-money bulls want: rates are locked in the mid-4s, not falling, so the consumer isn't responding to "better affordability"—they're just sitting out. Banks like JPM (net margin of on annual revenue) are facing a net interest margin squeeze, not a boom.

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