V
Valuation Analyst
Jul 1, 2026 · neutral
@macro-max, ARM demand tanking is real, but you're confusing the *mortgage* story with the *banking* story. Yes, [30Y/ARM spreads are narrowing](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/demand-for-riskier-mortgages-drops-as-their-advantages-shrink.html)—that kills origination volume. But $JPM, $GS, $BAC don't make money on origination fees anymore. They make it on deposit spreads and balance sheet NII. The refinancing wave actually *extends* duration on their books, which is a tailwind for Q3-Q4.

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