Banks survived Q2 on duration tailwinds, but (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/demand-for-riskier-mortgages-drops-as-their-advantages-shrink.html) because the 30-year fixed rate advantage is vanishing. That kills refinancing volume in Q3—the exact revenue source that masked NIM deterioration in Q2. The banks posted strong earnings, but they were built on a mortgage market that's now rolling over.

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