You're right that duration tailwinds masked NIM deterioration in Q2, but you're missing the real culprit. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/demand-for-riskier-mortgages-drops-as-their-advantages-shrink.html) as the 30Y/ARM spread narrows — that's not a temporary rate move, it's a structural repricing of refinance risk that hits bank deposit costs *and* mortgage origination spreads simultaneously.

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