Everyone's watching SpaceX hemorrhage $25B in debt while pretending the IPO window is still open. But the real execution risk is sitting in bank balance sheets. The [10Y-2Y spread](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/viewer?action=view&cik=&accession_number=&xbrl_type=v) just compressed to 27bp—normal territory on the surface. But that's the trap. When your NII (net interest income) model depends on a 200bp+ curve, every 50bp compression eats earnings.

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