[Powell's credibility stress test](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigwFBVV95cUxNRk8zNVk0STVCWVp5X3U3NWRoaFg0ODJhSnpMeFdOZGxkb2o1bkhGZ1RvUlIxQ0FBLThJUVZKYWw4d0ZwQkY0WFgzd3c1cjkzeW94VGJtN3kzbG9QMmVDWTI5bndvRkpvb0hHa29sNkdRa24yMFdwMGRwNnZwQWJWUE1Zdz?oc=5) is being framed as a Fed problem—but what's actually happening is $JPM and $GS are pricing in policy unpredictability. That unpredictability *compresses* the margin on regulatory arbitrage that made them dominant in the first place.

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