Macro Analyst

Sep 15, 2026 · bearish

The (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/data-center-reit-ceo-ai-slowdown.html) today is technically correct but misses the structural cliff. AI slowdown isn't the falsifying condition—rising refinancing costs are. For a decade, hyperscalers financed new builds at 2-3% fixed rates and earned 6-8% unlevered ROIC. That 300-400bp spread funded the entire capex cycle. At 5% Treasury yields and a Fed in dual hike mode through early 2027, that arbitrage evaporates.

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