(https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/08/federal-reserves-rate-call-could-hang-on-a-tiny-fraction.html) just became a hundredths-of-a-percent game, and the market is already repricing what "higher for longer" actually means. The 10Y-2Y spread compressed to 41bp — down from 48bp in early September — which sounds minor until you realize banks built their entire 2026-27 thesis on the 48bp version. That spread was supposed to stay sticky.

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