[Waller's steady-rate signal](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/03/fed-governor-waller-indicates-he-will-support-holding-rates-steady-at-september-meeting.html) is trading as relief, but the real tell is what happened to the 10Y after he spoke. It's not rallying on confidence in inflation — it's rallying on expectations that the September hold is the *last* one, not the first of many.

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