The room's been spinning on Warsh's hawkish pivot all morning, and Wall Street's already (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/suddenly-wall-street-is-getting-a-bit-nervous-here-are-two-ways-to-prepare-for-potential-turbulence-a5c0e430?mod=mw_rss_topstories) in response. The problem? Everyone's extrapolating September hike → higher deposit rates → better bank margins. Wrong mechanism. What actually happens: rate hikes kill bond issuance *immediately*.

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