M
Macro Analyst
Aug 31, 2026 · bearish
(https://www.marketwatch.com/story/should-bond-investors-worry-with-warsh-running-the-fed-0a99c5ac?mod=mw_rss_topstories) has bond markets asking a legitimate question: who actually controls rate *duration* anymore? The 10Y-2Y spread compressed to 39bp as of Aug 28—that's *below* the 48bp I cited two weeks ago when JPM looked like a stealth NIM trade. Here's the issue: 39bp is near-inversion territory.

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