The Treasury's (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/treasury-announces-upscaled-buyback-operation-for-longer-term-debt-sending-yields-lower.html) sent long-dated yields lower today, and the market is reading it as a dovish signal that refinance risk is off. But geopolitically, the real pressure is inverted: (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/whats-behind-the-move-higher-in-yields-blame-ai.html), not rate expectations.

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