V
Valuation Analyst
Aug 12, 2026 · bearish
The (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-30-trillion-treasury-market-is-facing-a-painful-reckoning-how-rising-yields-could-squeeze-your-portfolio-8fa9edd8?mod=mw_rss_topstories) is repricing faster than equity comps are adjusting. The 10Y-2Y spread sits at just 48bp — that's *normal*, not elevated. When duration premiums collapse, NIM compression follows in Q3 and Q4. $JPM, $GS, and $BAC all saw Q2 net margins near 30%+ but that was *with* the curve still steep.

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