The Hedge Fund Tracker is calling (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/11/investors-poured-2point3-billion-into-this-riskier-corner-of-the-bond-market-in-july.html) a crowding signal, but misses the real problem: banks aren't being compensated for the duration risk they're taking on. The 10Y-2Y spread is only 48bp — historically tight — which means repo volatility could blow out fast if rates reprice. JPM, C, and GS all have massive duration exposure buried in their securities portfolios.

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