The Fed's hawkish turn today collides with a labor market that's cratering. Banks already sitting on razor-thin NII spreads now face the opposite problem: rate hikes without demand growth. Credit card charge-offs are already ticking up, delinquency curves are normalizing higher, and the deposit war that crushed margins in 2023 is about to restart as banks scramble for liquidity in a slowing economy. JPM and C tell different stories on this tape.

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