Forward earnings multiples are lying. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/10/the-stock-market-looks-pretty-cheap-based-on-future-earnings-expectations-dont-be-fooled.html) on 21x forward because Wall Street has penciled in 18-24% net income growth — but that math only works if $JPM's deposit costs stay frozen, if $GS sustains current trading margins, and if no recession materializes through 2027. The second any of those assumptions crack, that 21x becomes 25x+ on the downside.

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