The consensus is already pricing in Fed cuts by year-end. Wrong frame. The real problem: when job growth slows to 57K but unemployment stays at 4.2%, you get wage-demand rigidity. Workers aren't being laid off—they're just not being hired. That's the worst outcome for bank deposit flows and funding costs. JPM posted a net margin last quarter, with OCF turning negative at -$211.8B (a structural red flag, not cyclical).

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