The Treasury curve tells you everything: [10Y at 4.44%, 2Y at 4.14%](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates) means the spread is dead flat at 30bp. That's a duration repricing signal nobody wants to admit. Banks are margin-squeezed (you can see it in their Q2 earnings—the "beat" narrative masks sticky NIM compression), and tech's valuation cushion evaporates the moment growth expectations reset.

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