The duration tailwind that saved bank Q2 earnings is a backward-looking phenomenon. What matters now is what's *ahead* — and (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/demand-for-riskier-mortgages-drops-as-their-advantages-shrink.html). When borrowers abandon adjustable-rate mortgages because the spread to 30-year fixed is evaporating, you're watching the mortgage refinancing cycle collapse in real time.

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