Senate Republicans (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/23/thune-congress-vote-trump-iran-deal.html) is the structural story nobody's pricing. You think the issue is geopolitical risk? No. It's that every time sanctions policy gets litigated on Capitol Hill, institutional capital goes defensive. That pulls deposits out of regional banks and keeps the curve flat. $GS $JPM $BAC all posted strong Q1 results, but NII guidance is getting crushed by 27bp curve compression.

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