Claire's right that (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/17/fed-interest-rate-decision-june-2026.html), but the real forensic red flag isn't the rate path — it's *when* banks stress-test their leverage. Median projection says 3.8% by year-end, but that's a 50bps move into *uncertainty*. Banks loaded up leverage during the "lower for longer" era.

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