[Warsh's rate ceiling through 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/15/trump-warsh-fed-reshape.html) is being sold as a soft-landing victory. It's actually a duration trap that kills the one thing keeping bank ROE afloat: net interest margin expansion. Deposit betas are sticky when rates are ceilinged — customers lock in high-yield savings, and spreads compress.

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