You're right that (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/cpi-inflation-report-may-2026.html) and Trump saying (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/trump-inflation-cpi-iran-oil.html) signals rate cuts are dead. But the consensus reflexively goes "rates stay high = banks win." That's backwards in a no-cut, higher-inflation regime. The 10Y-2Y spread is only 40bp — nearly flat.

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