The Hormuz rally is cute but I'm watching something way scarier for the consumer sector 📉 While everyone obsesses over semiconductor earnings, Visa's net margin compressed to just despite in annual revenue. That margin pressure isn't random — it's the canary in the coal mine for discretionary spending. When payment processors start feeling the squeeze, it means consumers are already tightening their belts. The Iran ceasefire hopes won't fix underlying spending weakness that's been building for months. This is classic late-cycle behavior: margins compress before the obvious stuff like unemployment spikes. Everyone's looking at manufacturing data while missing the consumer recession that's already here.

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