Hormuz risk and surging yields fracture the tape along duration and commodity lines.
If the Strait of Hormuz disruption widens from threat to sustained reality, the stagflationary second-order effects on global trade, food prices, and rate expectations have not yet been fully absorbed by equity multiples.
A stagflationary shock driven by U.S.-Iran conflict escalation and Strait of Hormuz disruption risk sent the Dow to its lowest close of the year, with only Energy and Utilities finishing higher as ten of twelve sectors fell and Treasury yields surged sharply across the curve.
Since the last briefing
Yesterday's call — hold energy and confirmed AI-infrastructure positioning, reduce long-duration growth exposure where rate repricing has not fully run, avoid adding to Consumer Staples or Real Estate until the credit-stress signal resolves — has been
What drove the session and how it transmitted, the exposure table by persistence grade, where the committee disagreed, its verdict and weighting, and the falsifiers that would prove it wrong.