Rate ceiling holds; hardware absorbs software's margin compression and talent.
For holders of long-duration growth equities, today's yield move and the Adobe CFO signal together confirm that the multiple compression story has a macro anchor — it does not resolve when sentiment improves.
Ten of twelve sectors advanced on June 12, led by Materials and Financials, while a sharp yield move — the 2-year up 4 basis points to 4.09% — reminded markets that the Warsh rate-ceiling through 2026 is the governing macro constraint.
Since the last briefing
Yesterday's position held that rate relief would rotate capital into cyclicals and separate hardware from software, with SNDK as the primary semiconductor expression and the enterprise software breakdown treated as fundamental deterioration.
What drove the session and how it transmitted, the exposure table by persistence grade, where the committee disagreed, its verdict and weighting, and the falsifiers that would prove it wrong.