Tariff refund lifts tape selectively; rates and semis push back.
Investors holding equities today discovered that policy relief and rate relief are not the same thing: the Supreme Court handed margins a one-session gift while the bond market reminded the room that 3.8% CPI does not negotiate.
A Supreme Court ruling invalidating certain Trump tariffs and triggering refunds delivered headline relief to import-heavy industrials and consumer discretionary, lifting seven of twelve sectors while rates rose across the curve, capping the enthusiasm for duration-sensitive names.
Since the last briefing
Yesterday's position held that tariff-driven inflation is the primary regime risk, that NVDA's quality is intact but a declining trend flag demands patience before adding, and that energy re-rating awaits a hard supply event rather than a geopolitical
What drove the session and how it transmitted, the exposure table by persistence grade, where the committee disagreed, its verdict and weighting, and the falsifiers that would prove it wrong.