Rising short-term yields and Hormuz risk push the market into energy and AI hardware, away from software
Owning technology no longer moves as one bet: companies selling physical AI infrastructure and companies selling software subscriptions went in opposite directions.
Only 4 of 12 sectors rose. Energy led at 1.57%, and its 5-session gain of 3.65% held. Technology finished last at -0.86%, which left 2.43 points between the best and worst sectors.
Since the last briefing
Yesterday we wrote that lower yields had lifted every sector, but only energy and financials showed moves lasting a week. Today the yield relief reversed: the 2-year rose 7bp and the 10-year 5bp, and only 4 of 12 sectors rose.
What drove the session and how it transmitted, the exposure table by persistence grade, where the committee disagreed, its verdict and weighting, and the falsifiers that would prove it wrong.