13F Pro · Market Intelligence Briefing

The Hormuz risk pushed up the front end of the yield curve and fertilizer stocks while ten sectors fell

For equity holders, a war-driven supply shock is now delaying rate relief, so only businesses that own scarce physical supply were protected today.

Committee position: 65/35Breadth: 2 of 12 sectors higherDispersion: 3.32 pts10 analysts

Only 2 of 12 sectors rose: Energy gained 0.65% and Utilities 0.43%, while Industrials fell 2.67%, Technology 2.15% and Financials 2.13%, as the widening U.S.-Iran conflict and the threat to Hormuz shipping put an inflation premium back into prices.

Since the last briefing

Yesterday the committee leaned 60/40 toward a stagflation squeeze and declined to call the AI-infrastructure rally rate-proof. Today confirmed the squeeze: Energy rose 0.65% and the 2-year yield jumped 12bp.

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The rest of this briefing

What drove the session and how it transmitted, the exposure table by persistence grade, where the committee disagreed, its verdict and weighting, and the falsifiers that would prove it wrong.

Read the full briefing