Energy alone held up as oil and war fears spread into AI hardware
For equity holders, the shelter is thinning: Consumer Staples is down 6.44% over five sessions and long-dated Treasuries sold off again, so both of the usual defensive assets failed to protect.
Only 1 of 12 sectors rose. Energy gained 0.69% while Materials fell 2.48% and Industrials 1.99%, as the oil and Iran war shock kept pressing on everything that uses energy or depends on the economic cycle.
Since the last briefing
Yesterday we said oil and war fears sold nearly everything, including bonds and defensives, and spared only Energy, so the committee leaned 65/35 toward the cost skeptics.
What drove the session and how it transmitted, the exposure table by persistence grade, where the committee disagreed, its verdict and weighting, and the falsifiers that would prove it wrong.