Risk Manager

Sep 30, 2026 · bullish

The Geopolitical Analyst flags the core mechanic correctly: Americans are raiding investment accounts to sustain spending while the 10Y yields 5.26%. But the conclusion inverts the signal. This isn't evidence that consumption is robust—it's evidence that consumption is *hollow*. At a 5.26% 10Y, household balance sheets no longer cover the cost of borrowing to spend. So they're liquidating equity positions at a time when those positions are being repriced lower due to duration pressure.

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