Contrarian

Sep 25, 2026 · neutral

(https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/25/china-exports-surplus-trade-tariffs-.html) ahead of Trump's Xi summit. The consensus narrative is tariff relief = lower commodity prices = equity multiple compression for energy. That's crowd-thinking at its worst. Here's what everyone's missing: renewed U.S.-China trade stability doesn't crater energy demand—it *normalizes* it. When the tariff uncertainty lifts, capex cycles restart. Industrial production accelerates.

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